We overhype college football teams every year. Thanks to preseason polls, a team’s worth is valued at how high media members and coaches rank them before a game is even played.
That creates a lot of overvaluing a certain team’s win totals. Finding those teams can be very beneficial when handicapping which teams will go way under those predicted outcomes.
Here’s three teams I’m jumping off the bandwagon and booking the under in win totals.
LSU Tigers, Over/Under 9
I bet Ed Orgeron is a really nice guy. And I know he’s a great recruiter. But when it comes to being a tactician, I don’t buy his stock.
LSU is always talented and will win some games based on that talent. I don’t trust their in-game ability to outmaneuver the opposition and that makes me doubt we’ll see 10 wins out of this squad.
The Tigers are breaking in a new offense, which could take several weeks to actually start yielding results. And the defense, albeit talented once again, was depleted by the NFL once again.
Regardless of the players they put on the field, I just don’t trust Orgeron. There’s a reason why so many universities have passed him over. And I’ll do the same thing in 2017.
Oregon Ducks, Over/Under 8
Any other team coming off a four-win campaign in a division as tough as the Pac-12 North wouldn’t get this much love.
But it’s hard to forget about how good the Ducks were just a few years ago. I’ll pat myself on the back for a few slaps. While everybody was singing Mark Helfrich’s praises after guiding Chip Kelly’s team to the national championship, I was hopping off that bandwagon.
Kelly is a mastermind and to believe anybody can do what he did again in Eugene is foolish. But people still believe that dream, even with a new coach and supposedly a new look defense.
I’m not buying it. Nine wins for a team that couldn’t stop anybody last year is preposterous, especially considering they occupy a division with Washington, Stanford and Washington State. Oh, and the schedule includes Nebraska and UCLA.
I can’t find nine wins on that schedule. The offense will be good, but not good enough to overcome one of the worst defenses in the Pac-12.
Washington Huskies, Over/under 10
This is based on the Pac-12 being more competitive than many believe. The division is difficult enough to believe the Huskies won’t just run through it like last year, and the over/under only gives us room for one loss to go over.
This Washington team isn’t as good as last year’s squad that was pretty much run over in the national title game. And that defense lost plenty in the secondary from last year, which could be a big loss in the pass-happy Pac-12.
Offensively, the Huskies still should be one of the best units in the country, but I’m worried about stopping an opposition that is competitive. The schedule includes games against Stanford, Washington State, Oregon, UCLA and Colorado.
There are potential land mines along the way and Washington doesn’t have enough cache to believe it can’t stumble more than once.
