The Big 12 season opens with plenty of duds. Six of the 10 teams square off against FCS teams, meaning no line is given.
But for all the lack of competition in those games, there is plenty of intrigue in the remaining four games. Texas has an opportunity to showcase whether it has improved in Charlie Strong’s third season with a home game against Notre Dame. Oklahoma and West Virginia are double-digit favorites, but have interesting matchups with Houston and Missouri, respectively.
And Kansas State is being doubted once again as more than two-touchdown underdogs at Stanford.
Here’s the top game I’m exploiting in week 1 of the Big 12 season.
Kansas State (+16) at Stanford
I’m not so sure that Stanford is going to be all that good, especially in the early going. Christian McCaffrey is possibly the best player in the nation, but there’s not much else at least in proven talent on the offensive side of the ball.
The quarterback is new, along with three new offensive lineman. And while the defense is usually a calling card, there also are some holes to fill. So, I’m not quite sure why the Cardinal are necessarily 16-point favorites other than McCaffrey is really good and that the team has Stanford in its name.
Injuries played a major role in Kansas State’s struggles last season, so be careful in dismissing a Bill Snyder-coached team in week 1. The Wildcats return plenty of offensive skill position players and the defense should be a top tier unit up front.
I know I’m getting the Wildcats on the road, but the Big 12 has shown consistently to be the best conference in the early stages of the last few years. Although the conference doesn’t usually show it during Bowl season, conference teams are dominant against the spread early in the season, going 8-3 ATS in the last two years in week 1. — Take Kansas State
Other Big 12 lines
Picks in bold
Oklahoma (-10) vs. Houston
Missouri at West Virginia (-10)
Notre Dame (-4.5) at Texas
