Oddsmakers have released win totals for the 2016 college football season.
I’ll take look at each power conference and pick the teams with the best chances to earn the over and the under. Here’s my look at two teams in the Big 12 destined for the under in 2016.
Texas Tech Red Raiders, over/under 7 (over -110/under -110)
The number is set appropriately, but I don’t have any faith in Texas Tech winning eight games with a defense unable to stop quality high school teams.
The Big 12 is brutal and full of top-notch offenses. It also owns some of the worst defenses in college football, too. And Texas Tech takes home the championship in that category.
The defense allowed almost 45 points per game last season to go along with allowing 280 yards rushing per game last season. That’s not a misprint. Texas Tech allowed opposing teams to run for almost 300 yards per game. Let that sink in a bit.
Patrick Mahomes returns as one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12, but his numbers are more misleading than noteworthy. He’s a system quarterback for a Red Raiders team that can score in many ways. The offense will likely not be a problem again this season.
This is all about the defense and a schedule that is unforgiving. I can’t see Texas Tech losing only four games going through a schedule with road games at Arizona State, Oklahoma State, TCU and Kansas State, and home games against Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas. Ouch.
The defense isn’t good enough to win road games or beat quality opponents at home. Book the under. — Under
Baylor Bears, over/under 9.5 (over +110/under -120)
Pretty much everyone will book the Bears in the under in win totals. The turmoil that occurred in the offseason isn’t helping the Bears with experts or the casual fans, so putting Baylor in this position seems a bit too easy.
But this isn’t about what’s easy or hard. This is about correctly predicting which teams will go over or under their expected win totals. For the Bears, that means they won’t achieve double-digit wins.
Baylor will face its usual parade of high school competition in the early going before hosting Oklahoma State in week 4. I expect Baylor to be undefeated all the way until Oct. 29 when it travels to Texas.
The issues from the offseason won’t affect Baylor in the early going. It rarely does to teams experiencing these kinds of problems. It’s later in the season when exhaustion starts to set in. And that’s what we can expect from Baylor, especially with the schedule awaiting them in the late stages of 2016.
The Bears will face Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and West Virginia on the road in the last six weeks of the season. The only two home games in that stretch are against Kansas State and TCU.
The Bears will employ another solid offense and won’t miss the leadership of Art Briles in the early going. It won’t be until later in the season that the Bears will face the true test of the turmoil left over from the scandal in the offseason. — Under
