Two games into the 2015 college football season and the overreaction brigade has already started.
Some teams are giving us a bit of pause with the results so far in the beginning of the season, but we’re not selling every team that has shown chinks in their armor.
Here’s our college football grades on whether we’re buying, selling or holding for future success.
Auburn Tigers
Has any team suffered the intense scrutiny of the college football national pundits as much as the Auburn Tigers?
Most of it is deservedly so. The Tigers allowed Louisville to come back in the first game after dominating the first half and Jacksonville State had plenty of opportunities to beat the Tigers in week 2.
Quarterback Jeremy Johnson is not living up to the ESPN hype train that started in the offseason. If you had paid any attention to ESPN analysts in the summer, you would have thought Johnson was returning from winning the Heisman trophy last season.
Well, he wasn’t, and after two games, he’s thrown as many interceptions at five, than touchdowns at three.
But, let’s not blow these two games out of proportion. Two years ago when Auburn hosted Washington State, it was lucky to escape with a seven-point victory in the opening game. The Cougars were horrendous that season and Auburn went to the national title game. In 2011, when the Tigers won the national title, it started slow again, beating Utah State in the opener by four points.
Sometimes it takes Gus Malzahn’s offense awhile to catch fire. But when it clicks, it’s nearly unstoppable.
When betting against the spread with the Tigers, this new perception from the general public that the Tigers aren’t any good, will actually help. The Tigers have been awful against the spread during the past two seasons, 4-11, so now, oddsmakers might give Auburn a break with the betting line. So far, it’s working, with LSU going from an opening line 6.5-point favorite this weekend, to 7.5 points.
We’re not buying more stock in the Tigers, but we’re reserving judgment. — Hold
Texas Longhorns
Something just isn’t right in Austin.
We knew there would be a rebuilding effort in Texas, but this is difficult to watch. The Longhorns looked good in the first quarter, tallying three touchdowns against the Owls and looked poised to run away with a victory. Then, the defense allowed the Owls back in the game, with the halftime score at 21-14.
We did like the Longhorns coming out of the break, and building a 42-14 lead, before allowing two garbage time touchdowns. To alleviate some of their offensive woes, the Longhorns turned to a new playcaller and a new quarterback.
That signals desperation. The Longhorns don’t have the luxury of an easy schedule in the Big 12, so setting off the panic button this early in the college football season is disheartening.
For bettors, the perception of Texas will remain high, despite what product is still on the field. Just look at the opening line for this week’s game against California. The line opened at only 2.5 points in favor of California.
The Longhorns will struggle this season, and we don’t see oddsmakers making the necessary adjustments. — Sell
Illinois Fighting Illini
We were totally off the Illinois train at the beginning of the college football season. The university dismissed its head coach days before the season started and this was a team that went to a bowl game last year based on an incredibly easy schedule last season.
This year, the schedule has been easy, so we’re not basing our opinion on the opposition. Instead, we’re hopping on this bandwagon with the way the Illini have looked in those games.
So far this season, Illinois has won its two games 96-3. Against any team, that’s impressive. But we wouldn’t be as impressed with those wins if it weren’t for how Illinois won games last season. Competition from last year comparable to the teams played this year featured far closer games.
Illinois was 3-0 against Youngstown State, Western Kentucky and Texas State last season. The combined margin of victory was 26 points.
This year, Illinois is demolishing the spread, going 2-0 so far, with an average plus-28 against the spread.
We’ll find out more about Illinois this week with a game against North Carolina. The public isn’t buying Illinois yet, with the spread going from 7 to 10 points in favor of the Tar Heels so far this week. That’s just why we like the Illini going forward. — Buy
California Golden Bears
There was no question about California’s ability to score entering this season.
We found out how well the Golden Bears could light up the scoreboard last season. What California also did well last year was allow the opposition to score at will.
In head coach Sonny Dykes’ third year with California, it appears the defense is finally catching up. In two games this season, teams have scored 20 points compared to California’s 108 points. In the second game of the season against San Diego State, California entered the game as a two-touchdown favorite, and escaped with a 28-point victory.
The Golden Bears are averaging a plus-14.8 mark against the spread, and now with the line moving to a 6.5-point spread this weekend, they could be well-equipped with another cover, as long as the defense holds up against the offensively challenged Longhorns. — Buy
