Florida took a big step toward the SEC East title last week, while Alabama showed why it should still be the favorite to represent the West in the SEC championship game.
We were surprised by Mississippi’s disastrous performance last week against the Gators, making us rethink where the Rebels will be by the end of the season.
As we go through the SEC season, though, bettors should remember that more than any conference, the SEC is a slog and can change on a week-to-week basis.
Here are two games we’ll keep an eye on this weekend. Last week’s betting guide for each power-five conference went 6-4, with a 0-2 mark in the SEC. Overall for the season, the betting guides have been 3-7 in the SEC and 27-23 overall in the power-five conferences.
Georgia (-3.5) at Tennessee
Wow, we bombed with the Bulldogs last week. We also saw the Volunteers bomb again, this time against another underachieving SEC team in Arkansas.
The main item to remember with Tennessee is that it’s young. Tennessee has seven underclassmen starting on offense and four starting on defense. There will be some bumps in the road and Tennessee hasn’t figured out how to finish yet.
At some point this season, that youth will mold together and will be a tough game for the top-tier teams in the SEC. As of right now, though, this team is spiraling downward.
And sure, Georgia got smacked in the mouth last week, but we’re used to seeing Georgia bomb on the big stage, only to come back and win games it’s supposed to win. The Bulldogs are still a good team, with veteran leadership. The Bulldogs feature eight upperclassmen starters on offense and four seniors on defense.
Since 2010, Georgia is 12-7 straight up after a loss. Trust the Bulldogs to win, and as a 3.5-point favorite, that’s all you really need. — Go chalk with Georgia
Arkansas (+16) at Alabama
Is Arkansas finally reaching its preseason potential?
We’re not sure, but with more than two touchdowns at our disposal, we’re going with the Razorbacks. We still believe Alabama has issues and isn’t as talented as in the past. Last week showed that the Crimson Tide are the best underdog in college football.
Now, the overreaction brigade is in full force and Alabama will have to cover 16 points. Since Alabama became a national powerhouse in 2009, the program is under .500 at home as a favorite. As a road favorite, the Crimson Tide are over .500.
The betting public goes too far in the direction for Alabama at home. Arkansas showed us plenty last week, saving its season with an inspired effort on the road. The Razorbacks have stopped the run well this season and began to run the ball well last week against the Volunteers.
Don’t forget that Arkansas gave Alabama everything it could handle last year. We’re picking the upset, but the Crimson Tide will suffer from a bit of a hangover this week and Arkansas will make this a game. — Go against the chalk with Arkansas
Other SEC games
Odds provided by Oddsshark
New Mexico State at Mississippi (-45)
LSU (-19.5) vs. South Carolina in Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Troy at Mississippi State (-30.5)
Florida (-4.5) at Missouri
