If last week was any indication, we could be in store for several close games in the Big 10 this year.
Five of the seven games in the Big 10 last week were within seven points or less. This week, three of the seven games have spreads at a touchdown or less, so oddsmakers don’t believe that trend will continue.
Here are two games we’ll keep an eye on this weekend. Last week’s betting guide for each power-five conference went 6-4, with a 1-1 mark in the Big 10. Overall for the season, the betting guides have been 6-4 in the Big 10 and 27-23 overall in the power-five conferences.
Michigan State (-13.5) at Rutgers
The Spartans have been awful against the spread this season.
Michigan State is 0-5 ATS and 5-0 straight up. It’s a pretty safe bet this week that Michigan State will keep its straight up streak alive, but can Michigan State finally get in the wins column against the spread?
We believe it will happen, especially based on the spread.
We can get Michigan State for less than two touchdowns against a team that is 2-2, with both of its wins against teams that have a combined record of 2-7 overall.
Michigan State hasn’t dominated teams like it has in the past, but it’s worth noting that since 2013, the Spartans are 6-2 as road favorites against the spread. The Spartans are better in all aspects of football compared to the Scarlet Knights.
Rutgers won’t be able to score with the Spartans. — Go chalk with Michigan State
Northwestern (+7.5) at Michigan
We’ve been firm believers in Northwestern this year. The defense is legitimate and the Wildcats are the only team to have beaten Stanford this season. That win continues to look better each week.
Michigan, meanwhile, has been even more stellar on defense since losing to Utah in week 1. Since that game, the Wolverines have allowed 14 points in four weeks.
So, we expect the defenses to dominate in this game, which makes this spread odd to us. We believe in Northwestern this year, and although the Wolverines hold the coaching advantage, we’re not so sure if Michigan holds any other advantages.
These teams seem fairly equal on paper, with average quarterbacks, a focus on the running game and extremely good secondaries. Neither team will likely be able to pass, allowing this score to stay relatively low.
We like getting a touchdown with Northwestern, since we believe this game will be one possession late in the fourth quarter. — Go against the chalk with Northwestern
Other Big 10 games
Odds provided by Oddsshark
Maryland at Ohio State (-32.5)
Indiana at Penn State (-6.5)
Illinois at Iowa (-11)
Wisconsin at Nebraska (-1)
Minnesota (-3.5) at Purdue
