Never bet against Alabama as an underdog. That was the hard lesson we learned last week in the Lockness Monsters.
The Crimson Tide was an underdog last week for the first time since the SEC championship game in 2009, and Alabama did what it did in 2009 — it dominated.
So, if there’s a next time that Alabama is an underdog, we’ll take the points and go with the Crimson Tide. Other than that, the Lockness Monsters had a ho-hum day, going 2-3 against the spread.
We’ll get back on the winning track this week in college football.
Last Week: 2-3 ATS
Season: 10-14-1 ATS
Iowa State (+11.5) at Texas Tech
Does this game not scream what Texas Tech is every year?
The Red Raiders start strong, lose a tough game, and then see the season take a downward spiral. That narrative seems to plague Texas Tech every year, and this season it looks like it’s happening again.
TCU beat Texas Tech on a tipped pass in the end zone two weeks ago, and then Baylor proceeded to score so many points by halftime that the offense just gave up in the second half en route to a big cover against the Red Raiders.
And although the Red Raiders are hosting the Cyclones, Iowa State is coming off an easy cover against the Kansas Jayhawks, and so far this season, the Cylcones have lost two games to teams that are a combined 9-0.
The Cyclones also seemed to find a running game with Mike Warren last week, and if Iowa State can do just a little on the ground, the passing game should open up. Iowa State has legitimate wide receiver talent, and the Red Raiders have shown in the past few weeks to not be able to cover good wide receivers in space.
Many people will dismiss the Cyclones based on past failures. But we’re not sure if Iowa State is actually as bad as it has been in the past. The Cyclones have lost to two pretty good teams this year and will come to Lubbock, Texas, this week with more of an edge than the Red Raiders. — Go against the chalk with Iowa State
Minnesota at Purdue (+3.5)
We’re not that sold on Purdue’s ability to win games, but we just don’t understand the love for Minnesota. Is it because of last year’s surprise success? Or is it because the Golden Gophers lost a close first game against TCU?
Trust me, if you put the Horned Frogs up against the Golden Gophers now, TCU would easily cover that two-touchdown spread.
Sure Minnesota is 3-1 since that opening-night loss against the Horned Frogs, but look who that has come against. The Gophers have beaten Colorado State, Ohio and Kent State by a combined nine points. Minnesota hasn’t covered a 3.5-point spread as a favorite all year, which featured three games against non-power five conference teams.
The Gophers also laid an egg last week at Northwestern, losing 27-0. This is two consecutive road games for Minnesota, while the Boilermakers are coming off an inspired loss to Michigan State. Purdue found itself down early and could have given up on the road.
Instead, Purdue had the ball in the end with an opportunity to either tie or win the game. That means something to us.
Throw out the records in this game. The Boilermakers not only cover, but win straight up. — Go against the chalk with Purdue
Wake Forest (+7.5) at Boston College
We’re not sure if Boston College can score more than seven points, so this should be a fairly obvious decision.
If we did over/unders, this would be one to target. The number is only 36, but in the last three games, the Eagles have scored 24 total points, while allowing only 37 points during those games. The Demon Deacons have done better scoring, with 16, 24 and 17 points in the last three weeks.
Both teams have severe issues at the quarterback position, but if John Wolford is able to go for Wake Forest, that should give the Demon Deacons a major edge at the position over Boston College’s two-quarterback system.
The Eagles will employ a strong defense, but we were encouraged last week with Wake Forest actually outgaining Florida State in an eight-point loss.
This will be low-scoring, so anticipate Wake Forest to keep up enough that the Eagles can’t cover more than a touchdown. — Go against the chalk with Wake Forest
Oklahoma State (+7) at West Virginia
Welcome to Big 12 conference play West Virginia.
After cruising through the non-conference season, the Mountaineers were rudely welcomed back to the Big 12 conference play, with Oklahoma cruising in the second half to defeat the Mountaineers by three touchdowns.
Now West Virginia must play another undefeated team in Oklahoma State. Oh, and if that’s not tough enough, the Mountaineers will play TCU and Baylor during the next two weeks.
If West Virginia thinks about having an above-average season, it will need to defeat the Cowboys. And while Oklahoma State has struggled mightily against the spread this season, going 2-3, it is still undefeated and looking for its sixth win.
We’ve been all over the Cowboys as a dark-horse conference title contender, and the last two weeks have shown that although the Cowboys aren’t perfect, it can ride its offense in multiple ways. Against Texas, the passing game wasn’t there, so the Cowboys ran. Last week against Kansas State, the opposite was true, so the Cowboys passed.
That diversity on offense will be needed on the road this week against a decent West Virginia defense. We like getting the points in this situation. This game should be within a touchdown, so take the Cowboys. — Go against the chalk with Oklahoma State
Florida (-5) at Missouri
We’re not fooled by Missouri’s win last week. South Carolina is awful and the Tigers still have too much to address on offense.
This is still a team that only three weeks ago scored nine points at home against UConn.
Sure, we could expect a letdown from the Gators in this game. But that defense is so nasty that the Tigers won’t be able to muster much of anything against Florida in this game.
This is another game where we like the under, despite the low number of 39.5, because of the Tigers’ inability to move the ball consistently, and the Gators likely not doing near as much damage on offense as they did last week against Mississippi.
Some teams continue to get better throughout the year, and we’re seeing that with Florida. Missouri isn’t good enough to score on Florida’s defense, so expect the Gators to cover a low-scoring matchup. — Go chalk with Florida
