Clemson flexed its muscle last week and now has the inside track to the College Football Playoff. However, a team that no one has been watching much of this season showed it may be able to compete against the Tigers.
Let’s go back to week 1 when North Carolina was finding its way on offense and just didn’t look good in a close loss to South Carolina. What if North Carolina pulls that one out and is undefeated? The Tar Heels are a four-point loss away from being undefeated at this point, and we’re not seeing any team on the rest of their schedule that will compete against North Carolina.
Watch out for the Tar Heels as the season progresses. They may be the least talked about one-loss team from a power-five conference in the history of college football. But they may control which teams make it into the final-four.
Here are two games we’ll keep an eye on this weekend. Last week’s betting guide for each major conference went 6-4 and was 1-1 in the ACC. Overall for the season, the betting guides have been 11-9 in the ACC and 53-43 overall in the power-five conferences.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Duke
We’ve talked about this before. We love Duke and Pittsburgh as underdogs and we hate them as favorites.
So, we’re in a perfect position this week.
For the Panthers, we believe oddsmakers are showcasing a knee-jerk reaction to two losses that we anticipated. The Panthers are only two weeks removed from being a favorite against North Carolina. Now, they’re underdogs to a team that gave up more than 60 points last week to the Tar Heels.
The Panthers are on a two-game losing streak, but those losses are against North Carolina and Notre Dame, teams with a combined two losses.
Duke, on the other hand, escaped with a win two weeks ago at home against Miami and then completely fell off the rails last week in a rivalry game against the Tar Heels. We’re not sold on the Blue Devils as a favorite and we’re not only going with Pittsburgh to cover, but to win straight up. — Go against the chalk with Pittsburgh
Virginia at Louisville (-14)
We’re in sync with the betting public on this game.
We’ve talked since day one that the Cardinals should continue to get better this season. The mass losses of NFL talent affected the Cardinals at the beginning of the year, but lately, Louisville is showing why it can compete on a weekly basis.
Since starting the year 0-3, the Cardinals are 5-1, which includes a blowout win against Syracuse last week. Virginia, meanwhile, is 2-4 during its past six games and have lost only one of those games by less than a touchdown.
The Cavaliers won’t have much motivation, while the Cardinals continue to get better. The betting public pushed this spread from 8.5 to 14 points. That isn’t enough. We’re going with Louisville. — Go chalk with Louisville
Other ACC games
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (-3)
North Carolina State at Florida State (-10)
Miami at North Carolina (-13)
Wake Forest at Notre Dame (-27.5)
Clemson (-28) at Syracuse
