The No. 1 pick in recent NFL drafts have been fairly straightforward. Although there was speculation about a trade or a possible dark horse contender for that spot, it’s been consistently dull at the top of the draft.
This season could be the anomaly.
If Tennessee keeps the top pick, draft experts expect Mississippi offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil to be the first overall pick. Oddsmakers are betting on Tunsil, but not by a large margin. According to Oddsshark, Tunsil is listed at -400, a far reduced number than last year’s No. 1 pick Jameis Winston.
Heading into last year’s draft, Winston was listed at -1500, with the next-best option as Marcus Mariota, who was listed at +600. Winston of course went No. 1, while Mariota went No. 2 to the Titans.
What makes this draft a little more unclear is the possibility of a trade for the No. 1 pick. The Titans obviously don’t need a quarterback, so they don’t need that top slot to get its future signal caller.
That’s why if you’re not risking a wager on Tunsil, the next-best options have to be quarterbacks. Oddsmakers don’t necessarily agree, with expected top-10 picks Carson Wentz and Jared Goff listed at +1200 and +1600, respectively. Jalen Ramsey and Joey Bosa, listed at +450 and +600, own better odds than the two top quarterbacks.
I understand the rationale for Ramsey based on several draft experts liking his chances considering he may be the best overall player in the draft. However, with the absence of solid offensive linemen available in college football nowadays, it’s imperative for teams to draft well on the offensive line.
That’s why I don’t believe the Titans will pass up on a player like Tunsil, if they stay in the No. 1 spot.
Because of that uncertainty, it may be worth a value pick to go with Wentz or Goff as a long-shot. Having a good quarterback is still a top priority of NFL teams, so a team may get antsy for a solid quarterback to rejuvenate their franchise.
Tunsil is the smartest pick, but don’t sleep on the top quarterbacks’ value.
