For future reference, don’t bet against Alabama on the road. The Crimson Tide bettered their record against the spread as a road favorite last week against Texas A&M and since 2008, where Alabama has been a road favorite 27 times, it’s winning games by more than two touchdowns.
But this week, the Tide are at home and they’ve been under .500 against the spread since 2008.
The grind continues in the SEC, but this week, like every other major conference, is weak on the big matchups.
Here are two games we’ll keep an eye on this weekend. Last week’s betting guide for each major conference went 4-4, with a 1-1 mark in the SEC. Overall for the season, the betting guides have been 5-9 in the SEC and 35-33 overall in the power-five conferences.
Tennessee (+15.5) at Alabama
We’re not betting against the Tide on the road again, but we’re not making that same statement at home.
Oddsmakers over-value the Crimson Tide at home consistently and this week is no different. The Volunteers aren’t a bad team, and sure, it appears Alabama has gotten better throughout the season, but it’s struggled in some games this year — Mississippi and Arkansas.
Tennessee saved its season with a win against Georgia in its last game so it should have some momentum coming into this contest. The only losses so far for the Volunteers have been by a combined 12 points.
Tennessee isn’t far off from being perfect at this point, so we’re not giving up two touchdowns. There are still some unresolved issues on the offensive end for Alabama. This is a rivalry game, so don’t be surprised if this is close into the fourth quarter. — Go against the chalk with Tennessee
Auburn at Arkansas (-6.5)
This is a sneaky line. There’s not much in-depth analysis to explain why Arkansas, a team with two wins, is a touchdown favorite over a team that is two games above .500.
But…the Razorbacks seem to have finally started playing like they were predicted in the preseason. Many preseason prognosticators believed Arkansas would compete for a SEC title. That won’t happen, but the last three games, featuring close losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, and a win against Tennessee, have shown that Arkansas can compete.
Auburn, meanwhile, still can’t stop anybody, and last week’s win at Kentucky is the best win of the season for the Tigers.
This is back-to-back road games for the Tigers and we saw a local legislator try to stop the Tigers from playing pre-noon kickoffs earlier this season after the Tigers almost lost to Jacksonville State.
This is an 11 a.m. kickoff and when Auburn wakes up, this game will already be over. — Go chalk with Arkansas
Other SEC games
Missouri (-3) at Vanderbilt
Texas A&M at Mississippi (-5)
Western Kentucky at LSU (-16)
Kentucky at Mississippi State (-11.5)
