Had North Carolina State managed to score in the red zone for a meaningless touchdown last week, we would have gotten over the hump and gone over .500 last week. But the Wolfpack didn’t convert and failed to record the backdoor cover.
That’s been par for the course this season for the college football Lockness Monsters. Now it’s November and we’re ready for the chaos to begin.
Last week: 2-3 ATS
Season: 19-26-1 ATS
TCU (-5) at Oklahoma State
Sometimes teams get better throughout the season. Sometimes they don’t.
For TCU, it weathered an early season storm and is playing its best football as of late.
The Horned Frogs struggled against an underwhelming Minnesota squad and barely squeaked by Texas Tech and Kansas State. Since that time, though, TCU has begun finding its defensive footing.
In the last four games, the Horned Frogs are 4-0, and while some of the final scores look bad for the Horned Frogs defense, don’t be fooled.
TCU dominated Texas and stuffed Kansas State for the second half after struggling through the first half. And if it wasn’t for a bad first quarter against Iowa State two weeks ago, the Horned Frogs would have cruised through the past two weeks on defense.
The defense is getting better for the Horned Frogs and at the right time. Oklahoma State put up 70 points last week against a terrible Texas Tech defense. This should be a good matchup, but in the end, we believe TCU just has too much firepower. This game is close in the fourth quarter, but TCU pulls away in the end. — Go chalk with TCU
South Carolina at Tennessee (-17)
Usually we wouldn’t dare take more than two touchdowns in a SEC game in November.
But the Volunteers are hot, while the Gamecocks are not.
South Carolina is 1-3 straight up and 2-2 against the spread in its last four games. South Carolina showed fight last week against Texas A&M, but we’re anticipating that fight is long gone. This will be the Gamecocks’ fourth road game in the last five contests and we don’t believe we’ll see an inspired unit.
The Volunteers, on the other hand, are starting to hit their stride. Tennessee defeated Georgia to start a three-game stretch where it went 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread. The Volunteers put up a fight against Alabama two weeks ago and cruised by Kentucky on the road last week.
The offense can score on defenses not named Alabama and the defense does enough to stop teams. This won’t be close. — Go chalk with Tennessee
Utah (+1) at Washington
At one point in the season, the Utes were the talk of the college football world.
Now, they’re one-point underdogs at Washington.
We’re not buying the overreaction, though. The Huskies are better than we anticipated, but don’t look too much into that win last week against Arizona. The Wildcats are not as good as last year and something’s off about that offense.
This should be a game where defenses rule, but we believe the Utes own the better defense. Both teams will struggle offensively, but Utah has the best player on the field in Devontae Booker. And although we’re not totally sold on Travis Wilson as a quarterback, he has the experience necessary to go into a hostile environment and win.
Don’t miss this game. Both defenses are solid and this should be one of the better matchups of the day. — Go against the chalk with Utah
California (+4.5) at Oregon
We know Oregon was really good during the last few years, but we don’t understand why California actually started out the week as more than a touchdown underdog.
The betting public has since moved this line three points and we don’t blame them. We believe the Golden Bears actually have more talent than the Ducks.
Oregon can’t stop anyone on defense and that won’t change in this game. California can score with the best of teams and we doubt the Ducks have magically gotten better on defense in a week.
We know the Golden Bears have struggled through their last three games, but the defense is coming along. We expect the defense to continue to get better. Don’t be concerned with the recent struggles by California. The Golden Bears will score early and often against the Ducks. — Go against the chalk with California
Arkansas (+11) at Mississippi
These are the type of games where we would expect Mississippi to show a talent gap. But lately, we’re wondering if that gap is that much bigger than the Razorbacks.
Arkansas is much like Tennessee, where it took a little while to get to full speed. But the Razorbacks are 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games. The offense is churning out yards at a high clip and the offense should be able to move the ball against the Rebels.
The Rebels, meanwhile, are winning games, but not doing it in the fashion many believed it would when it won at Alabama. We’re not sure why there’s so much love for Mississippi and so little for Arkansas. This game will be much closer than the experts believe. — Go against the chalk with Arkansas
