We started making you money last week, and had it not been for the hook, it would have been even more in college football.
Last week’s college football Lockness Monsters went 4-1, losing only with Oklahoma State, which won by three, and was supposed to cover by 3.5 points.
With a good week behind us, we’re looking to get over .500 for the season. Here’s out five best bets for week 5 of the college football season.
Last Week: 4-1 ATS
Season: 8-11-1 ATS
Nebraska at Illinois (+7)
This isn’t the Nebraska of the 1990s. It’s not even the Nebraska of the Bo Pelini era.
The Cornhuskers aren’t playing any defense, allowing 28 or more points in three of four games this season. Nebraska is 2-2 overall and it struggled last week at home against Southern Mississippi.
We didn’t like the personnel with Mike Riley’s scheme from the very beginning. Riley is a NFL coach with a NFL strategy. His personnel is from Pelini’s days, where the Huskers ran a more spread, run-focused offense. And the defense had the tough task of mixing veterans and youth, and so far it’s not working.
The Fighting Illini showed some heart last week in a win against Middle Tennessee State. Illinois usually loses those games.
We’re getting great value with the seven points. In Nebraska’s only road test this season, the Cornhuskers fell way behind Miami, before coming back with a miraculous backdoor cover. We expect Nebraska to come out flat again, and Illinois’ offense is good enough to put up points against a leaky Nebraska defense. — Go against the chalk with Illinois
Washington State (+18) at California
We’ve been high on California this season. The defense is coming around and the offense is scoring at will.
Washington State, on the other hand, got off to a rocky start with a loss against a FCS team, before traveling across the United States to defeat Rutgers and then returning home to beat a bad Wyoming team. We’re not concerned with picking a winner in this one. The Golden Bears should win this game, but it won’t be by a blowout.
We trust Washington State head coach Mike Leach in the underdog role and coming off a bye week. The Cougars got an early bye, while the Golden Bears have been on the road the last two weeks against Texas and Washington. Those were good wins by the Golden Bears, but we’re not sold on either the Huskies or the Longhorns. Both programs are down this year, and the Golden Bears entered both of those games as favorites.
Now the Golden Bears will have to step up on defense to cover the more than two-touchdown spread. The Cougars and Golden Bears can score. Look for a lot of scoring and the Cougars will cover. — Go against the chalk with Washington State
Arizona State at UCLA (-14)
There are quite a few teams that are getting the benefit of the doubt this season with oddsmakers based on previous success. TCU, Alabama, Oregon, Auburn and Arizona State are getting too much love despite the decrease in production this season.
The Sun Devils have looked bad on both ends of the football this season, and we’re giving away two touchdowns at home in this one. I get that the betting public may believe the Bruins will have a letdown, and maybe Arizona State isn’t as bad as it looked last week against USC.
But Arizona State really isn’t that good this season, and the Bruins have enough experience that a letdown shouldn’t be the case in this one. We like what UCLA can do on both sides of the ball, so we’re not too concerned about giving away this many points. — Go chalk with UCLA
Baylor vs. Texas Tech (+17)
This game isn’t known much for the head-to-head spread. Instead, this game has the distinction of owning the highest over/under in the history of college football, with the over/under set at 90.
There will be plenty of points; past history has shown us that much. The last time this matchup didn’t go over 90 points was in 2010, when the teams combined for a low-scoring 83 points.
We haven’t seen much from Baylor this season, with three games against SMU, Lamar and Rice. The wins have been impressive, but we’re concerned that the Bears haven’t tested themselves enough. We realize this is a common occurrence with the Bears, but this year, the Red Raiders have at least proven to compete at a high level.
Texas Tech was a tipped pass away from defeating TCU last week and beat Arkansas on the road two weeks ago. The Red Raiders are battle-tested, making them equipped to handle the offensive onslaught awaiting them with Baylor. The only issue that Texas Tech may have is an extreme letdown after last week, but we’re thinking the rivalry aspect of this matchup brings out the best in Texas Tech.
There will be a lot of points. But the Red Raiders should be able to keep up, at least within two touchdowns. — Go against the chalk with Texas Tech
Alabama at Georgia (-1.5)
For the first time since 2009, Alabama will be an underdog in the regular season. You didn’t misread that.
The Crimson Tide last were an underdog in 2009 against Florida in the SEC championship game. That game ended in a win in the Crimson Tide’s favor, and as you’ve seen through the years, Alabama didn’t look back.
But this year is different. Mississippi was the better team in a win at Alabama. The Crimson Tide have real issues at the quarterback position, and that defense doesn’t strike near as much fear in opponents as it once did.
The Bulldogs will counter with a strong running game and a passing game that should move the chains against the Crimson Tide. Georgia doesn’t have any signature wins thus far this season, but it’s done enough in the early games to warrant high expectations heading into Saturday’s tilt against Alabama.
Don’t be scared of Alabama being an underdog. This isn’t the Crimson Tide you’ve seen during the last decade. — Go chalk with Georgia
