Most SEC teams are going on their one-game late season sabbatical this week, with all six games played out of conference against teams from non-power-five conferences.
That makes for some lackluster games to watch, but some interesting spreads. That is if you’re willing to back the heavy underdog.
If you like danger, then you’ve come to the right place, because we’re suckers for non-power-five conference teams as heavy underdogs.
Here are two games we’ll keep an eye on this weekend. Last week’s betting guide for each major college football conference went 3-7 and was 1-1 in the SEC. Overall for the season, the betting guides have been 9-11 in the SEC and 56-50 overall in the power-five conferences.
Charleston Southern (+38.5) at Alabama
We once watched a game on some grainy Internet station to watch North Texas pull out a cover at Alabama as more than 40-point underdogs.
We generally go with that strategy when squaring off against the Crimson Tide. Alabama covers at an alarming rate on the road. But at home, it’s a different story, especially as big favorites.
For some reason, the Crimson Tide have historically not covered those major spreads of more than five touchdowns. That’s why we’re going with Charleston Southern.
And it’s not as if Charleston Southern is horrible. It’s rated in the top-10 in FCS and runs the ball at more than 200 yards per game. You could say that plays right into what Alabama wants to play, but that would be using logic with your decision.
Throw away logic in this game. The Crimson Tide struggle enough in these types of games and aren’t a team that will run up the score. Alabama will win comfortably, but it may take awhile before it gets ugly. — Go against the chalk with Charleston Southern
Tennessee (-8) at Missouri
We’re not sure why the betting public has moved this line a point in Missouri’s direction. Maybe it was last week’s victory against BYU that has the public more excited about Missouri than we are.
We’re chalking up last week’s victory as part of winning one for head coach Gary Pinkel. Don’t forget that for most of the game, the Cougars were dominating the Tigers.
All that emotion that helped Missouri last week will likely backfire this week. It’s not usually the game immediately after a roller-coaster week that affects the team. It’s the weeks that follow where that emotion drains teams.
We’re betting on that happening to a team that’s not very good to start with. The Volunteers are the better team by far and we can’t imagine Missouri’s offense can keep up with Tennessee. — Go chalk with Tennessee
Other SEC games
Florida Atlantic at Florida (-31)
The Citadel at South Carolina (-20)
LSU at Mississippi (-4)
Idaho at Auburn (-33)
Mississippi State at Arkansas (-4)
Georgia Southern at Georgia (-13.5)
Texas A&M (-7) at Vanderbilt
Charlotte at Kentucky (-24.5)
