Three players are overwhelming favorites to win the next Heisman trophy in college football. Picking between those three might not be the best idea, though.
Deshaun Watson, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette will enter the 2016 season as the main Heisman candidates. Watson will have the biggest advantage thanks to Clemson being a prohibitive favorite for the national title. That’s part of the reason Watson has a small edge over McCaffrey and Fournette at +300, compared to +400.
All three had stellar seasons last year, making it appear like a slam dunk that all three will be major forces in this year’s race. And from the starting point, these three will dominate the discussion.
But don’t just write down the favorites as the only players capable of winning the Heisman.
Look at the previous seven winners of the Heisman, and the list now looks like a star-studded list of college football royalty. However, upon further examination, many of those players were on the outside looking in when the season started.
Of the last seven winners, Marcus Mariota and Mark Ingram Jr. were the only ones with a fighting chance at the beginning of the season. Last year’s winner Derrick Henry had little fanfare heading into the season, and while Jameis Winston, Johnny Manziel, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton are household names now, they weren’t entering their Heisman seasons.
They were off-the-radar, meaning it would create far more value for your Heisman bet to look at some players who may be able to crash the national scene thanks to a high-profile team.
Quarterbacks currently on the board include Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett, Mississippi’s Chad Kelly, Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs and UCLA’s Josh Rosen. Barrett has the best odds at +1000, and while Kelly will have opportunities to shine, I don’t see him capable of putting up numbers worthy of being in the Heisman consideration.
Rosen and Mayfield likely have the best shots in this group. Mayfield will put up big numbers at Oklahoma and will be part of a national-relevant program. Rosen will be in a similar situation, and with his highly coveted skills, he is likely to show the improvement many expect after he was the No. 1 quarterback in high school only two years ago.
If a running back could crash the party again this season, it might be Nick Chubb at Georgia. Chubb is talented and being in the SEC will give him plenty of opportunities to have high-profile games.
If I’m looking for value outside the top three, I’m going with Rosen or Mayfield as the dark horse Heisman winners.
