Slowly, but surely, we’re creeping back into the .500 category in our college football Lockness Monsters.
Last week, we whiffed on Iowa State and Purdue by big amounts, but we battled back with three straight wins to close the day above .500.
Last week: 3-2 ATS
Season: 13-16-1 ATS
Louisville (+7) at Florida State
We’ve been patient with Louisville this season and it’s about to pay dividends.
The Cardinals were slow out of the game in 2015 thanks to losing several players to the NFL. We knew it would take time, but we had confidence in head coach Bobby Petrino’s ability to not only coach, but to develop players.
Since battling Clemson on a Thursday night, losing by three points in week 3, the Cardinals are 2-0, including a win two weeks ago at North Carolina State.
Now, rested from a bye, we’re even more hyped about Louisville’s potential. The Cardinals have the defense to compete against the top ACC teams, as evidenced by allowing 20 points to Clemson earlier this season.
The Seminoles have underwhelmed significantly this season again. Florida State is undefeated and once again 2-3 against the spread. Florida State suffered from the same affliction last year, going undefeated, while being under .500 against the spread.
Florida State is coming off an emotional victory last week and the Seminoles will struggle with the early kickoff. — Go against the chalk with Louisville
Mississippi (-10.5) at Memphis
We like Memphis as a team. The Tigers are winning by an average of 21 points per game and beating the spread by 10 points per game. Memphis also enters this game undefeated, while the Rebels have looked pretty average since winning at Alabama.
The Rebels struggled at home against lowly Vanderbilt on Sept. 26 before coming out flat at Florida and losing by four touchdowns. Last week Mississippi got back on track…sort of…with a victory against New Mexico State.
Not counting Alabama, Mississippi’s victories have come against teams with a combined record of 6-16.
However, this is still one of the most talented teams in the country. And sure, Memphis is a good non-power-five team, but we’re not putting the Rebels on any sort of upset alert. This game should be close in the first half, but Mississippi’s depth wins out, giving the Rebels the victory by at least two touchdowns. — Go chalk with Mississippi
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Georgia Tech
We were buying stock in Georgia Tech at the beginning of the season, but we’ve sold all of our shares by now. That’s why we don’t understand why we’re getting more than a field goal against the Yellow Jackets, which have struggled mightily since losing at Notre Dame.
Georgia Tech is 0-4 in the last four games, and none of those games have been particularly close, other than a touchdown loss to North Carolina. We know Georgia Tech is at home, but the crowd won’t help get that offense back on track.
It hasn’t looked anything like it did last year and the defense still isn’t stopping anyone.
We’re not completely sold on the Panthers, but they are 4-1 on the season, and have shown the ability to play defense at times this season. We don’t expect Pittsburgh to score much, but that defense shouldn’t have any trouble slowing down the Yellow Jackets. — Go against the chalk with Pittsburgh
Florida (+9.5) at LSU
Is LSU the most overrated team in the nation?
We’re leaning toward “yes,” making it an easy decision to take the Gators with the points. We’re not sold on how the Tigers will score in this game.
Sure, Leonard Fournette is a beast, but LSU doesn’t have a capable quarterback to throw the ball. The Gators have an elite defense that continues to get better. Since rallying against Tennessee, the Gators have allowed 13 total points in two games.
The Tigers continue to get love from the national media, but they haven’t really been tested. The Tigers beat Mississippi State and Auburn, but we’ve seen the deficiencies in those teams.
Without quarterback Will Grier, the Florida offense will struggle, so this game should be low-scoring. But we don’t believe the Tigers will be able to score either, making the underdog an enticing pick. — Go against the chalk with Florida
Penn State (+17) at Ohio State
There’s something not quite right in Columbus, Ohio.
The offense is sputtering and the defense isn’t what we believed it would be when the season started.
It might have something to do with a national title hangover, but whatever it is, the issues haven’t been fixed. The Nittany Lions looked good last week against Indiana and the defense has surrendered more than 14 points once since an opening-week loss to Temple.
The Buckeyes have gotten too much love from the betting public and oddsmakers this year, resulting in a 1-5 record against the spread. Since missing out on a cover in week 1, the Nittany Lions have been over .500 against the spread, resulting in a 3-2 mark.
Don’t forget that Penn State gave Ohio State everything it could handle last season.
Ohio State won’t trip up against Penn State, but this game will be closer than the experts believe. — Go against the chalk with Penn State
