FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has Alabama at 9.5 wins. Last year, Alabama was 11-1 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable under to betters at +105, while the over is set at -145.
The upside
Oddsmakers are expecting the over, and it’s no wonder, since Alabama has won more than nine regular season games in six of the last seven seasons.
Like usual, the Crimson Tide will have a favorable home schedule with home games against Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU. The Tide haven’t been unbeatable at home during the last few years, and Alabama will have a tall task against Wisconsin in Arlington, Texas in the season’s opening game.
The defense should be better this year, too. However, there are still question marks in the secondary, which should play a role in several games this year, since the SEC is joining other leagues in the nation with more passing attempts.
Lastly, Alabama recruits better than any program in the nation, allowing the Crimson Tide to reload each year, despite needs at several skill positions. While there are several positions that may have more questions than answers, Alabama has shown during the past few years that the only name on the jersey that matters is Alabama.
The downside
Those question marks at quarterback, on the offensive line and at wide receiver could pose problems, especially with a national game against Wisconsin in the season’s opening game. Alabama has shown during the years that these opening national games are just another way of showing how good the Crimson Tide can be. However, this may be different with the Badgers hoping to get the Big 10 respect.
If Alabama gets by the Badgers, there are a few difficult road games, with Georgia topping the list. Alabama has skirted some of the better SEC East teams on the road during the last few years, but the Bulldogs won’t be a pushover. That game also will start a stretch of four crucial games, with Alabama playing at Georgia, vs. Arkansas, at Texas A&M and vs. Tennessee.
That stretch will likely tell the story of the over/under this year.
The Verdict
There won’t be many gamblers to go under 9.5. With the track record Alabama has had during this run, many gamblers will likely go with the Crimson Tide at 10 and above. Betters will likely find out right away if Alabama can lose three games this season.
It’s difficult to predict Alabama losing that many games, but in this case, with better odds toward the under, the best bet with the most advantage is the under. Alabama could easily lose the opening game, at Georgia and at Auburn. There are other possible losses – at Texas A&M, and at home against LSU, Mississippi or possibly a better-than-advertised Arkansas group.
Take the under and see if the odds become more favorable as the offseason continues.
