FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Pac-12.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has Arizona State at 8.5 wins. Last year, Arizona State was 9-3 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable over to betters at +130, while the under is set at -170.
The upside
Oddsmakers are banking on the Sun Devils to go under 8.5 wins. That’s understandable considering the Pac-12’s strength and the Sun Devils schedule.
But there will be more on that later. The good thing for Arizona State is that recently, the program has been on the upswing.
The Sun Devils have won double digit games in consecutive seasons and they will return 16 combined starters on offense and defense.
That should give Arizona State fans plenty of reasons to celebrate. And despite losing three-year starter Taylor Kelly, proven back-up Mike Bercovici will step in for the 2015 season. Bercovici replaced Kelly last year after an injury, and defeated two ranked opponents in his limited role before Kelly returned.
The downside
Yes, the Sun Devils are returning 16 starters. But they are losing a veteran quarterback, a now NFL wide receiver Jaelen Strong, and big pieces to their offensive line.
Those aren’t just fillers. Those positions will be difficult to replace. That doesn’t account for the defense, which wasn’t a strength last season, and doesn’t appear like it will be much to count on again this year.
The Sun Devils will have to adjust quickly offensively and defensively with an opening game in Houston against Texas A&M. The SEC West foe will have a strong home contingent for that contest, and the Sun Devils can ill afford to start out slow with their new pieces in order to go over the 8.5 win total.
The schedule doesn’t get much easier, with difficult home games against USC, Oregon (which hasn’t been on the schedule during the last two 10-win seasons), Washington and Arizona.
The Sun Devils also will face two difficult road assignments at Utah and UCLA. To get to nine wins, the Sun Devils likely face six toss-up games.
The Verdict
Arizona State doesn’t have an easy schedule. However, the schedule does include plenty of home games.
The Sun Devils play four true road games, to go along with seven home games. Those home games include some of the tougher match-ups already discussed, which could prove beneficial for the Sun Devils.
Arizona State should have five guaranteed wins, one likely win at home against Washington and six toss-ups. That’s quite a few toss-ups for bettors to depend on when betting the over.
That’s why oddsmakers have juiced the under so heavily. It’s too risky to take the Sun Devils in the over, especially with the amount of skill that graduated off of the 2014 team.
Take less money and go for the under.
