FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Auburn Tigers in the SEC.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has Auburn at 8.5 wins. Last year, Auburn was 8-5 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable over to betters at +100, while the under is set at -140.
The upside
Winning eight games against that schedule last year would be a success for most teams. However, with the way the Tigers did it, along with coming off a national championship appearance, many in the SEC would consider last year’s effort by the Tigers a failure.
The Tigers ended the season with four losses in their final five games (including their bowl game against Wisconsin). The only win during that period was against Samford.
Auburn wasn’t losing against just anyone, though, with losses against Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama and the Badgers.
For this year, Auburn will rely on Jeremy Johnson at quarterback, who will replace Nick Marshall. The Tigers will likely be more of a passing unit than in years past, but head coach Gus Malzahn has proven to make the most of what he has, and the Tigers shouldn’t be short on talent once again this year.
The defense should also get a boost due to the hiring of Will Muschamp, who will take over a defensive unit that has been by far the weakest link on the Tigers during the past two seasons.
Also, the top three returning tacklers from last year return.
The downside
Talent won’t be the issue for Auburn. Much like last year, it’s all about the schedule.
Road games feature match-ups with LSU, Kentucky, Arkansas and Texas A&M. Home games are against Jacksonville State, Mississippi State, San Jose State, Mississippi, Georgia, Idaho and Alabama. An opening day game against Louisville is at a neutral site.
The good sign is that Auburn plays most of its games at home, with three victories that can be basically counted as wins (Jacksonville State, San Jose State and Idaho). Chalk up a road game against Kentucky as a win, and the Tigers are at four wins before the season begins.
It’s tough to find another guarantee, though. Auburn should be favored against Louisville, Mississippi, Mississippi State and Texas A&M. The next four games, at LSU and Arkansas, and home against Alabama and Georgia, will be toss-ups where the Tigers are potentially underdogs.
The Verdict
Oddsmakers believe in the under for the Tigers. The line has a far more favorable return with the over, and getting to nine wins will be difficult for Auburn.
However, with this much talent and seven home games, there isn’t much reason to doubt the Tigers. They won seven of their first eight games with likely a less talented roster (especially on defense) last year, and this year features a more favorable home schedule, where last year’s games were mostly played on the road.
It’s likely the Tigers lose three games. That would give the Tigers nine wins and the over, which is the correct play for the 2015 season.
