FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big 10.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has Iowa at 7.5 wins. Last year, Iowa was 7-5 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable over to betters at -115, while the under is set at -125.
The upside
There’s pretty much even action on Iowa in the over/under category, giving betters less of an incentive to choose either side. This comes down less to value and more on what will actually happen.
The Hawkeyes finished 2014 above .500, but the seat is about as hot as it’s ever been for head coach Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes beat a bunch of teams that weren’t any good last year. The Hawkeyes defeated one bowl team from FBS (Pittsburgh), and recorded one win against a team with a winning record (University of Northern Iowa from FCS).
The seven wins from Iowa last year came down to its schedule, but it could have been more. Iowa lost four games by one possession last season.
C.J. Beathard will step into the starting quarterback role this year. Beathard competed with Jake Rudock last year, but Rudock transferred to Michigan this year, meaning the starting nod will go to Beathard this season.
Beathard went 2-0 last season, and many fans were calling for him to start over Rudock anyway last season. They will get their wish this season.
The schedule won’t be too difficult to navigate for Beathard and the Hawks again this year. Iowa has to travel to Wisconsin, but other than that game, there aren’t any other games that are likely losses.
Iowa’s home schedule features games against Illinois State, Pittsburgh, North Texas, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota and Purdue. Barring a complete collapse, Iowa will likely be favored in each of those games.
The road schedule also won’t be too treacherous. The Hawks travel to Iowa State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Indiana and Nebraska. Iowa likely won’t be favored in all of those games, but it’s pretty safe to say it will be favored in at least two, if not three of those games.
The downside
Iowa has been about as average as a team can be in the last three seasons. Its record shows just how average it has been over the last three years at 19-19.
It’s not like Iowa has faced a daunting schedule during those three years. That’s been the most frustrating part for Iowa fans. With a schedule that should feature more wins than a little more than six per year, the Hawks just haven’t delivered.
The defense may struggle again this year and the offense returns three offensive lineman, but lost its best player in Brandon Scherff. There’s no guarantee the offense or defense will be better, giving betters reason to pause in picking the Hawks to win eight games.
The Verdict
There’s likely only three guarantees on the Hawks’ 2015 schedule. Iowa will lose to Wisconsin and will win against Illinois State and North Texas.
Other than that, there isn’t a game that should scream win or lose for the Hawks. Normally when Ferentz is on this hot of a seat, the Hawks respond. But Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois and Minnesota should be better than in years past, making it unlikely those games would result in the Hawks being heavy favorites.
With a schedule this light on top-25 teams, Iowa should be in contention for winning eight games. There’s a reason why oddsmakers neglected to juice either side of the over/under. The Hawks have faced easier schedules lately, and come back with average results.
Expect more of the same this season. Iowa will likely win six or seven games, but with the talent currently on the roster, don’t expect Iowa to win eight games. Go with the under and expect some nerve-wreaking Saturdays of close contests.
