FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Michigan State Spartans in the Big 10.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Michigan State at 9.5 regular season wins. Last year, the Spartans went 10-2 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable under for bettors at +100, while the over is at -140.
The upside
Michigan State may have a new identity in 2015. With Connor Cook returning under center and losses on the defensive side of the ball, the Spartans may look to rely on its offense to reach double-digit wins.
Cook will likely be one of the better passers in the Big 10 again this year, with the offensive line showcasing plenty of talent. Because the offensive line and quarterback positions are settled, it doesn’t matter too much that the Spartans will look to replace its starting running back and best wide receiver from a year ago.
Cook will likely make his receiver look better than they are, especially in the early going, and a strong offensive line can mask most deficiencies in the running game. The offense will have to be in full gear right away as Oregon visits East Lansing, Michigan, in the season’s second week.
Other than the Ducks, the Spartans should be favored in the rest of their games, except for Nov. 21 when they travel to Ohio State.
Michigan State will be favored in 10 games, and it will likely be heavily favored in seven games against Western Michigan, Air Force, Central Michigan, Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland and Indiana.
The Spartans also will be favored against Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State, but it’s not clear yet whether those will feature double-digit spreads.
The downside
The schedule sets up nicely for the Spartans with no Wisconsin, or potential upset teams like Minnesota, Iowa and Northwestern. That should open up the possibility of the Spartans competing for another Big 10 title.
However, as mentioned previously, the Spartans will likely rely more on the offense, than the defense, thanks to the departure of long-time defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi, who is now Pittsburgh’s head coach.
Narduzzi’s defenses consistently ranked among the best in college football. There’s no guarantee that the defense will take a step back without him, but it still leaves a question mark entering the 2015 season.
While the front four shouldn’t feature any question marks, the secondary will have to replace Big 10 Defensive Back of the Year Kurtis Drummond and Trae Waynes. The secondary will likely be tested right away against the Ducks.
The verdict
Even if the Spartans lose both of its prime-time match-ups against Oregon and Ohio State, it will still be favored in the rest of their games.
Likely the biggest hurdle (if Michigan State doesn’t upset Oregon or Ohio State) to 10 wins will be a date at Nebraksa on Nov. 7. It’s a night game at Lincoln, Nebraska, and the crowd will likely be electric. The plus for the Spartans is that the team will be coming off a bye week entering the game.
The number is not as good for the over, but it’s just too likely that the Spartans will reach double-digits, especially if they can defeat either Oregon or Ohio State. With a soft schedule and a quality team, the Spartans should reach 10 wins and go over the 9.5.
