FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early season look at the Missouri Tigers in the SEC.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Missouri at 7.5 regular season wins. Last year, the Tigers went 10-2 in the regular season. The line features an even return on the over/under at -120.
The upside
Missouri shocked college football last year by not only losing to Indiana at home, but then rebounding, and representing the SEC East in the SEC title game.
The Tigers are becoming a regular representative of the East in the championship game, with two first-place East finishes in the three years since moving to the SEC. The Tigers’ combined SEC record during the previous two seasons is 14-2 in the regular season.
And while there were graduation losses from a year ago (pretty much every wide receiver is gone), the Tigers return experience on the offensive line, with five linemen returning with previous starting experience. The line will pave holes for returning running back Russell Hansbrough, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season.
Junior quarterback Maty Mauk also will don the Tigers’ uniform again, which should give the Tigers plenty of stability on offense. Missouri didn’t rely must on its offense last season, but this season, with a few more holes to replace on defense, the offense will be called upon more often.
Defensively, the Tigers should boast a solid secondary, with three cornerbacks returning, and a quality linebacking corps, with Kentrell Brothers and Michael Scherer manning the middle.
The downside
Missouri has been a great success story in the last three years, after making the jump as a mid-level Big 12 team to a top SEC East team. Part of the reason for that jump has been the schedule.
In 2013 and 2014, Missouri avoided Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Mississippi State. In 2014, the Tigers also avoided Mississippi.
The Tigers once again lucked out in 2015, missing Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Mississippi. A home game against Mississippi State could be tricky, along with a non-conference match-up at Arrowhead in Kansas City, Missouri, against BYU.
And while the schedule shouldn’t be as difficult as what it can be in the SEC, the East is getting better, and the Tigers must travel to much-improved Kentucky, Georgia and much-improved Arkansas.
The defense will be young in spots, so going on the road against those teams could be a difficult task. A key part of Missouri’s schedule will take place from Sept. 26 to Oct. 17, when the Tigers travel to Kentucky and Georgia, with games at home against South Carolina and Florida, sandwiched in the middle.
The verdict
Missouri should have a potent offense and has skill coming back on defense. That should bode well with another year of missing some of the best teams in the SEC.
The biggest issue for the Tigers is that the East is getting better, and the Tigers will have some difficult road contests against some of the much-improved teams in the SEC.
Overall, the Tigers should be at least a touchdown favorite in five games (Southeast Missouri, Arkansas State, Connecticut, Vanderbilt, and BYU) and have a slight edge in games against Tennessee, Mississippi State and Kentucky (although that game should scare all Missouri fans).
Missouri can reach eight wins based on this schedule, so be fairly confident when choosing the over for the Tigers.
