FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early season look at the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big 10.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Ohio State at 11 regular season wins. Last year, the Buckeyes went 11-1 in the regular season. The line features a better return on the over at +100, while the under is set at -140.
The upside
Ohio State doesn’t have much room for error. The defending national champions leads the way for college football teams with an over/under of 11, meaning the Buckeyes have to go undefeated to satisfy the over.
With a roster and schedule like the one Ohio State will tote around in the 2015 regular season, the over is a distinct possibility.
This team is loaded with talent. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is a Heisman contender, there are three proven quarterbacks on the roster, and the offensive line pretty much remains intact from last year. Oh, and the defense returns several starters, including Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year defensive end Joey Bosa.
Ohio State will be favored in every game, and most of them won’t be close.
Go ahead and chalk up wins in games two through 10. Sorry for the list, but this is worth the ink (or whatever a website post is called) – home against Hawaii, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Maryland, Penn State and Minnesota, and on the road against Indiana, Rutgers and Illinois.
It’s difficult to get much softer than that. Teams in the Pac 12, Big 12 and SEC would love to see that schedule.
It doesn’t matter, though, since the Buckeyes won the national championship last season. This year’s schedule could feature mediocre high school teams (the jury is still out if Hawaii, Western Michigan and Illinois qualify in that realm), and if the Buckeyes go undefeated, they will go to the playoff.
The downside
The defense wasn’t always that great last season.
The Buckeyes ranked 26th in scoring defense, and while that may not be considered that bad in many parts of the country, it’s like grasping for straws for a weakness. Arguments could be made that having three quarterbacks on a roster could create conflict within the locker room. That’s a valid point. However, there’s no way to anticipate that happening, and whoever is under center, they are likely to be the second option in the offense behind Elliott.
The only other way to find an opportunity to achieve the under is through the schedule, which will feature three tricky games. The Buckeyes are still two-touchdown favorites against Virginia Tech in the season opener, but recent suspensions could make this game a little closer than many experts believe.
The only other tests will come in the season’s final two weeks, at home against Michigan State and at Michigan. The Wolverines won’t be that great, but the game is a rivalry and the first in the Harbaugh-Meyer feud. The match-up against the Spartans should be far more interesting, and that will be the Buckeyes’ biggest test.
The verdict
It’s crazy to bet the over on a team having to go undefeated to reach that number. However, the Buckeyes are so talented and the schedule is so easy, there’s a legitimate argument to firmly believe that 12-0 will happen. In all honesty, there’s an easier path to logic in Ohio State going 12-0 than believing it will lose a game.
There’s only one game that will feature a single-digit spread and that’s at home against Michigan State. The rest should all be in the double-digit range. That makes for a compelling argument for the over.
Repeating as champion is difficult. Look at how Florida State played last year as a blueprint for the difficulty of going back-to-back. But the Buckeyes were ahead of schedule last year in winning the title. While the Seminoles graduated key pieces off their title team, Ohio State brought its pieces back.
The over is the better return, so don’t shy away from the perfect season. Take the over and watch the weekly destruction.
