FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early season look at the Purdue Boilermakers in the Big 10.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Purdue at four regular season wins. Last year, the Boilermakers were 3-9 in the regular season. The line features a better return on the under at +105, while the over is at -145.
The upside
There was definitely improvement from 2013 to 2014 for Purdue. Of course, there really wasn’t anywhere else to go but up.
The Boilermakers went from one win to three wins from 2013 to 2014. Purdue also made baby steps in the Big 10, going from zero wins to one win during that span.
Three wins won’t match expectations this year for Purdue. While experts aren’t expecting a Big 10 championship, they are expecting a better unit than the one that lost the final six games of the regular season last year.
Sixteen starters return for Purdue, including junior quarterback Austin Appleby. Appleby has one win on his resume (the Boilermakers only Big 10 win during the last two seasons), so he will have to improve upon his consistency. Appleby should be helped out by a quality offensive line, where all five starters return.
Top wide receiver Robert Kugler also returns.
And while this may be a plus or a minus, almost the entire defense returns. Another year of experience should help out this struggling unit.
The downside
The Boilermakers were atrocious on defense last season. Purdue allowed 30 points or more in seven of 12 games. It didn’t help that the offense wasn’t much better, mustering more than 17 points in only five games.
That doesn’t necessarily equal a recipe for success.
As mentioned already, most of the defensive starters return. However, those starters didn’t produce much on the field last year, so the talent level may not be high enough to compete on a weekly basis in the Big 10.
While the non-conference schedule does feature some winnable games, the conference slate of games doesn’t bolster the Boilermakers’ chances at achieving five wins.
Purdue must travel to Michigan State, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Iowa. Purdue will be underdogs in all those contests, and it will be heavy in at least two of those games.
The verdict
Purdue does have a manageable home schedule, with games against Indiana State, Virginia Tech, Bowling Green, Minnesota, Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana.
Illinois is the only team that Purdue has beaten in the past two years in the Big 10, and the Boilermakers should at least be close to evenly matched against Indiana, Minnesota, Bowling Green and Indiana State. An opening road game against Marshall also should be a contest where Purdue may not be favored, but should compete.
There are plenty of pieces returning for Purdue, so this team should be better. And with the amount of games that should feature near-even spreads, it’s plausible the Boilermakers win five games.
Look for a bounce-back season (of sorts) and take Purdue to reach at least the five-win plateau.
