FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early season look at the Utah Utes in the Pac 12
Over/under
FiveDimes has Utah at 7.5 regular season wins. Last year, the Utes went 8-4 in the regular season. The line features a better return on the under at -110, while the over is set at -120.
The upside
Quarterback Travis Wilson will make another go at it for Utah in his senior season. Wilson has had an up-and-down career, being replaced multiple times. However, he’s back, and showed improvement last year by cutting down on turnovers.
He’ll get some help in the backfield and up front, with multiple offensive linemen returning and featured back Devontae Booker returning for the 2015 campaign. The offense should be on track, and although the defense suffered some losses, it shouldn’t take too much of a step back after finishing second in total defense last year in the Pac 12.
The Utes will get a test right off the bat against the Michigan Wolverines, but so far, oddsmakers are liking the Utes’ chances, pegging them as anywhere from a five to six-point favorite in the season’s opening game at home. The line opened as three points in favor of the Utes.
The non-conference schedule lightens up with Utah State and Fresno State before the Utes begin a difficult Pac-12 slate.
The downside
Utah won eight regular season games last season. One of the reasons is because the Utes won close games. In games decided by a touchdown or less, Utah was 5-2, which included wins against USC, Stanford, Oregon State, UCLA and Colorado.
Can the Utes repeat that performance this year? It will have to do so without as strong of a defense, at least in the early going. Utah employed one of the best defenses in the Pac 12 last season, but now with the absence of key members in the secondary and defensive line, the unit won’t be as dynamic.
The offense may be improved, but it will have to do plenty of work against the schedule that faces the Utes.
Utah will travel to Oregon, USC, Washington and Arizona. It’s likely the Utes won’t be favored in any of those contests.
The home schedule isn’t much easier, with games against an improved California team, Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA and Colorado. It’s perceivable the Utes will enter at least two of those games as underdogs (against the Sun Devils and Bruins.)
The verdict
It’s unlikely many prognosticators looked at Utah’s schedule last season and predicted eight regular season wins. Utah showed it belonged in the Pac 12 and won close games.
To win that many closes contests again would be difficult to believe. The Utes will be underdogs in at least six games (Arizona State, UCLA, Oregon, USC, Washington and Arizona.)
To get to eight wins, Utah will have to win all the games it is supposed to, plus two as the underdog. That seems too risky for a team that just isn’t explosive on either side of the ball. Utah doesn’t do much for me, so take the under.
