FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early season look at the Vanderbilt Commodores in the SEC.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Vanderbilt at three regular season wins. Last year, the Commodores were 3-9 in the regular season. The line features a better return on the under at -105, while the over is at -135.
The upside
The offense has to be better than last year. Against FBS opponents last season, the Commodores scored more than two touchdowns in only five of 11 games.
This year, Vanderbilt will feature more experience on offense, with the quarterback, running back and wide receivers positions featuring returners. The offensive line also should have more experience, providing some hope that the offense may improve a bit. The biggest problem, though, is those players played last year on a team that won three games – against UMass, Old Dominion and Charleston Southern.
Just like the offense, the defense will feature a new coordinator. However, the defensive coordinator is head coach Derek Mason. The defense also should have more experience, and some of former head coach James Franklin’s talented recruits are still on the roster.
Those players will have to improve mightily, though, with the schedule awaiting them.
The downside
We’re trying to be nice about the offense and defense, but both sides of the ball will need serious work. The Commodores don’t have the luxury of playing a weak schedule, so the players who suffered through a winless SEC season last year, must step up to at least keep the score close to have an opportunity to win a game.
Last year, the Commodores kept only half of their eight SEC games within 14 points.
With the SEC East improving, it doesn’t look good for the Commodores. Road games against Mississippi, Middle Tennessee, South Carolina, Houston, Florida and Tennessee will all likely feature the Commodores as underdogs (Middle Tennessee should be a quality football team again this year.)
There are a couple of winnable games at home, against Austin Peay and Western Kentucky, but the rest of the slate includes Georgia, Missouri, Kentucky and Texas A&M. Vanderbilt likely won’t be favored in any of those SEC games.
The verdict
Going over three wins is a stretch for the Commodores.
Vanderbilt should beat Austin Peay, but it will square off against Houston, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky in games that may not even feature Vanderbilt as favorites in all of them.
The Commodores will once again fade this year, and while the non-conference schedule would be soft for almost any other team, bettors shouldn’t have any confidence in the Commodores. Take the better return and go with the under.
