FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early season look at the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big 10.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Wisconsin at 10 regular season wins. Last year, the Badgers were 10-2 in the regular season. The line features a better return on the over at +160, while the under is at -210.
The upside
Oddsmakers are baiting bettors into taking the over. With such a quality return compared to the under, gamblers have to make a decision on how to proceed with the Badgers, which will have to break in a new coach and new running back.
But that schedule is once again right in the wheelhouse.
If the Badgers can somehow beat Alabama, then winning more than 10 games becomes a far more probable bet than before. However, even with a loss to the Crimson Tide, which shouldn’t be as good as in past years, the Badgers could still run the table.
Wisconsin avoids Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State. Instead, the Badgers go on the road against Nebraska, Illinois, Maryland and Minnesota. Other than the Cornhuskers, the Badgers should be heavily favored in each of those games.
In home games against Miami (Ohio), Troy, Hawaii, Iowa, Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern, the Badgers should actually be more than touchdown favorites in all of those games.
On the field, the Badgers should still feature a solid defense, and quaterback Joel Stave returns to lead the Badgers through possibly one of the easiest schedules in the nation, other than the opener against Alabama.
The downside
The calling card of Wisconsin must replace several pieces.
The offensive line will only return two starters from a year ago, and if the Badgers believe they can compete in the opening game, the offensive line better be ready to play. There won’t be any time to make adjustments, and with breaking in a running back who will have to take over for Melvin Gordon, the Badgers may have too many question marks heading into the season’s opening game.
Stave will have to be the main weapon in the early going, and although he’s won several games, sometimes it has been in spite of his play. He will have to pick up his play this season, and if he can’t, the Badgers may struggle.
Also, with having to win 11 games, every game is important. As mentioned earlier, if Wisconsin can beat Alabama, it makes the case toward 11 much stronger. However, the Badgers are underdogs in the game, so if the Crimson Tide wins the game, Wisconsin must run the table to satisfy the over.
The Badgers proved last year, wtih a loss against under-.500 Northwestern, that going undefeated against a soft schedule is easier said than done. And the Badgers must travel to Nebraska, which could be a tricky mid-season contest for the two teams vying for a spot in the Big 10 title game.
The verdict
What’s the point of taking the under?
Oddsmakers have made it so tempting that it is almost necessary to put a little dough on the over. Wisconsin will likely lose its first game, but there’s a real possibility in the Badgers winning the rest of the games.
Don’t put your child’s college savings on the line, but take a chance, and go with the over.
