It’s time to start rethinking how oddsmakers are setting the spreads for the two top preseason Big 10 teams.
Michigan State escaped Rutgers with a victory Saturday on a late touchdown, while Ohio State struggled through the first half against Maryland, which is firing its coach.
The Spartans and Buckeyes are 1-11 combined against the spread this season. Both teams, though, are undefeated straight up.
Ohio State is winning by a large margin — almost 20 points — but it’s losing by almost 10 points per game compared to the spread. The Spartans, meanwhile, aren’t winning by as much — only 10 points per game. Oddsmakers are lowering the bar for Michigan State, as evident by its two-touchdown spread against the Scarlet Knights.
The Spartans are losing by almost eight points per game compared to the spread.
Both teams are having a difficult time on the offensive end, which may be the determining factor as to why Michigan is a touchdown favorite this week against the Spartans. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, are still big favorites this weekend — 17.5 points against Penn State.
Trouble at Southern California
What started out as a stellar start to the season has completely unraveled at USC.
After losing straight up at home again, this time to Washington on Thursday, head coach Steve Sarkisian is now taking an indefinite leave of absence.
The Trojans looked bad against Washington on Thursday, as the offense just hasn’t shown much of an identity after losing to Stanford a few weeks ago. The depth is coming back for the Trojans, which was saddled with recruiting restrictions for years, so it’s hard to find the excuses as to why the offense can’t generate consistent movement.
The Pac-12 is wide open this season, so a loss or even two may not be a killer for conference title hopes. However, with all the drama at USC, it appears that this season is already over in terms of reaching preseason expectations.
Bettors should recognize the issues at the Trojans, and it’s likely that oddsmakers will make an adjustment. The Trojans have opened as a 4.5-point underdog this week at Notre Dame, which is dealing with its own problems, but with injuries, instead of coaching turmoil.
USC will be a good team to avoid, based on the team having the talent to compete, but the high probability that the Trojans will continue to be inconsistent.
Can oddsmakers make big enough spreads for Kansas?
The Kansas Jayhawks are 1-4 against the spread this season to go along with its 0-5 straight up record. The Jayhawks are almost assured of going under the 1.5 wins this season, but the spreads they face, it would seem Kansas could cover those major numbers?
That would be wrong, though.
The Jayhawks were 44.5-point underdogs this week and lost by 59 points. Kansas has only been a favorite once this season, against FCS South Dakota State, which it lost.
Kansas hasn’t even faced the heart of its schedule yet, and in three of the five losses this season, the Jayhawks have been right around two-touchdown underdogs.
With upcoming games against some of the highest scoring teams in the nation, the spreads could be astronomical. We’ve been trying to expose the number, but the Jayhawks aren’t cooperating, losing by an average of 26.4 points per game. This week, the Jayhawks host Texas Tech, and have opened as 30.5 underdogs.
