Why do you keep betting Auburn?
It has to be you that continues to gamble on the Tigers, because that’s the only way that oddsmakers would keep giving the Tigers the benefit of the doubt.
So far this season, Auburn is 0-5 against the spread, losing by an average of 14.7 points per game against the spread. Last year, the Tigers were 4-9 against the spread.
Since going to the national championship game in 2013 and going 12-2 against the spread that season, the Tigers are 4-14 ATS.
It’s natural for the betting public to keep going with a team a year after such a good season, based on expectations. But we’re into year two of this downward trend, and bettors seem to keep taking the Tigers.
Just look at the odds so far this season facing Auburn. This season, the Tigers have been double-digit favorites three times, and have been underdogs only once.
In 13 of the 18 games in the past two seasons, the Tigers have been favorite, going 3-10. They’re even worse as an underdog at 1-4.
Let’s say you bet $50 against Auburn since 2014, and got a return of 2-to-1. You would have notched a net return of $500.
The betting public isn’t getting the point. It’s time to fade the public and start pressing oddsmakers to direct the spreads more toward the opposition. We’ll see Auburn again in two weeks when it travels to Kentucky. What are the odds the Tigers are favored?
Be careful betting against Kansas State
When it comes to conference games, there’s no team better than Kansas State against the spread.
Maybe it has to do with the low expectations each season. Or possibly it has something to do with the Wildcats’ efforts against non-conference opponents.
We can’t explain it, but for some reason oddsmakers and the betting public continually undervalue the Wildcats against the spread each year inside the Big 12 conference.
Since 2012, no team has been better inside a conference against the spread than Kansas State. The Wildcats are 20-7-1 against the spread inside the conference during that time, and Kansas State already is 1-0 against the spread this season against Big 12 teams.
The Wildcats opened as about a field goal underdog this past week against Oklahoma State, only to see the betting public move that number to more than a touchdown. Kansas State lost straight up, but still covered the spread.
Kansas State will once again be home underdogs against a conference team (TCU) this week. The Horned Frogs opened as touchdown favorites.
Spartans are road warriors
Michigan State has been as bad as Auburn against the spread this season.
The Spartans are 0-5 against the spread, with four of those contests coming at home. The only difference with the Spartans is that they’re winning those games.
We’re aware of the issues so far against the spread this season for the Spartans, but since 2013, when Michigan State won the Rose Bowl, the Spartans have been machines on the road.
That will be something to keep an eye on during the next few weeks, as Michigan State will go on the road for three of the next four games, and will likely be favored in each of those contests. Since that Rose Bowl year, the Spartans are 6-2 against the spread as road favorites.
One of those losses came this season at Western Michigan, and we’re anticipating big spreads during the next two weeks. Michigan State opened as 17-point favorites at Rutgers this week.
If recent history is any sign, the Spartans may be comfortable in their role in the coming weeks.
Three SEC teams good after a loss
Missouri showed last week why it continues to be one of the best teams coming off a loss.
The Tigers, which lost to Kentucky two weeks ago, beat South Carolina last week, moving its record to 6-0 against the spread after a loss since 2013.
Two more teams this weekend will be able to display if they can continue their quality records after a loss against the spread.
Georgia and Mississippi State are 5-2 and 7-2 respectively against the spread after a loss since 2013. Both are coming off of bad losses last week, and will have challenges again this week against the spread.
Mississippi State is taking a week off from difficult competition, but will have to cover 30 points against Troy. Meanwhile, Georgia will travel to Tennessee as a three-point favorite. The Volunteers also are coming off a loss, and since 2013, the Volunteers are 8-7 against the spread after a loss.
