Week 10 offered another solid week, netting a 5-1 overall ATS, with a perfect 3-0 mark with the underdogs.
That’s been the case for the majority of the college football season. There’s more matchups to exploit in week 11. Here’s the week 11 college football picks featuring the three best underdogs that will cover the spread.
Overall: 39-21 ATS
Underdogs: 21-9 ATS
Texas Tech at Baylor (+8)
A few weeks ago I went with an underdog Iowa State team on the road against Texas Tech, based on the Red Raiders regular ability to go downhill after a loss. Since that loss on Oct. 14, Texas Tech hasn’t won again, going 0-4 in that period, including a devastating loss in week 10 against Kansas State.
Texas Tech can’t make stops when it matters. And when the offense can’t keep up, that’s a major problem.
I’m actually surprised I’m getting more than a touchdown in this game. Baylor is terrible, but the Bears have a little momentum with the season’s first victory in week 10 against a horrendous Kansas team. Baylor actually hasn’t played that bad at times in recent weeks either, losing by a combined 22 points to Oklahoma, Kansas State and West Virginia.
Baylor made a quarterback change in the second half of the Texas game. Charlie Brewer has rejuvenated this team. First team to 60 wins this one, so I’ll go with the Bears keeping this within one score. — Go Against The Chalk with Baylor
Purdue (+5) at Northwestern
Purdue is better than what its record indicates. The Boilermakers went through a tough spell in the middle part of the season, losing by a combined 11 points against Wisconsin, Rutgers and Nebraska. Other than the Badgers, those teams aren’t world beaters, but the Boilermakers aren’t great at blowing out teams.
But they can keep games close…much like their opponent Northwestern.
The Wildcats have rattled off four straight wins, with the last three of those by one possession. Both teams keep games close, so in that case, when I’m getting more than a field goal, I’m hammering the underdog. And it doesn’t hurt that Purdue ranks 34th in the country in rushing yards per attempt allowed, which should slow down the Wildcats rushing attack, which it relies on consistently. — Go Against The Chalk with Purdue
Arkansas (+17) at LSU
How much do you trust LSU?
That’s what you have to ask yourself when looking at this game. The Tigers showed its inability to keep up with Alabama in week 10, which wasn’t a surprise. The Tigers don’t have enough firepower to compete with an offense like Alabama, but Arkansas should be a different story. I’m not so sure that will happen, though.
A letdown is a major possibility, and the Razorbacks are riding a subtle two-game winning streak. The Razorbacks have looked better on offense in recent weeks, so I expect that to be the case once again in week 11.
This number is too high for a game where it should be expected for the Tigers to have a letdown. Look for the Razorbacks to get to an early lead, forcing this game to be in question heading into the fourth quarter. — Go Against The Chalk with Arkansas
