Our luck never really started in college football this season, so we weren’t surprised when Auburn completely let last week’s home game against Georgia slip away.
We’ve come to expect those results this season, but with only a few weeks left in the regular season, we’re pushing on until the end, looking to have some big weeks.
Here’s our five best bets against the spread for the college football weekend.
Last week: 2-3 ATS
Season: 23-32-1 ATS
California (+11) at Stanford
Sometimes a win is all a team needs.
The Golden Bears have been on a freefall since Oct. 10 against Utah. California was undefeated heading into that game. That loss, though, sunk California into a four-game losing streak before it finally reached the win column again last week at home against Oregon State.
The Beavers are a good team to face when needing a win, so we’re not going to blow that win out of proportion. However, getting back into the win column may give the Golden Bears enough confidence to show up this week against Stanford, which saw its national title hopes disappear last week at home against Oregon.
The air may be let out of the Cardinal, allowing the Golden Bears to sneak into a rivalry game with less hype than usual. The Golden Bears’ offense is good enough to score on the Cardinal, which has shown to be vulnerable at times this season. — Go against the chalk with California
Baylor at Oklahoma State (Even)
We’re not saying the Cowboys should get much credit for their schedule so far this season. However, they should get a little more respect from oddsmakers.
We were surprised Oklahoma State wasn’t at least a field-goal favorite against a Baylor team that isn’t the same without starter Seth Russell. We thought the Bears wouldn’t miss him much, but that offense just isn’t the same without him.
And although the Cowboys should have beaten Iowa State by more than four points, we’re not taking too much stock in that game last week. Oklahoma State has fended off each task in front of it, and done so in convincing fashion in some cases.
The Cowboys’ victory against TCU was still against Trevone Boykin, so we’re not dismissing that victory. The Cowboys have a good enough defense to slow down the Bears, and we’re predicting the Cowboys get more respect this week after beating Baylor. — Go for the win with Oklahoma State
USC at Oregon (-4.5)
We’re beginning to believe in Oregon again.
The Ducks turned a double-digit underdog spread last week into a win, and the Ducks are one of those teams that have gotten better each week without notice.
Oregon appeared to hit rock bottom with a home loss to Washington State, but lately, that loss doesn’t look too bad. The Cougars are one of the best teams in the Pac-12, and since that loss, the Ducks are back to their scoring ways, netting at least 38 points in three of the past four victories.
That will continue against a Trojan team that has gone the opposite way of the Ducks at this point of the season. Since looking like a top-tier team with a win against Utah, the Trojans are 1-2 ATS, playing one-possession games against California, Arizona and Colorado.
That’s not exactly the best teams available in the Pac-12. The Ducks are hot and we don’t see any team getting in their way. — Go chalk with Oregon
Mississippi State at Arkansas (-4)
Sometimes you have to take favorites in college football. One of these days, we’re going to figure that out, so that’s why we’re backing favorites in the second-to-last week of the regular season for many power-five conference teams.
We’ve been riding the Razorbacks for awhile now, and we’d love to see Arkansas square off with a few of those teams it lost to in the beginning of the season. Arkansas is playing as well as anyone at the moment and exposing some of those “great” SEC teams along the way.
We were high on Mississippi State last week, and looking back, we shouldn’t have been. We were devaluing Alabama, even though we predicted the Bulldogs to have far less talent this year than last.
So that’s why we’re backing the Razorbacks again. Arkansas’s offense is churning out plenty of points and the Razorbacks will be happy to be home after two big road wins against Mississippi and LSU.
We don’t anticipate this game to be close. The Bulldogs won’t be able to keep up with the Razorbacks. — Go chalk with Arkansas
Colorado (+14.5) at Washington State
As we mentioned earlier in this column, the Cougars may be the best team in the Pac-12. The Cougars have lost by a combined eight points in their two losses in the Pac-12, and own wins at Oregon, at Arizona and at UCLA. We’re assuming not many predicted Washington State to have those wins on its resume.
But in all three of those cases, the Cougars were underdogs. In fact, Washington State has been underdogs in six of 10 games, and in all six contests, the Cougars have beat the spread.
As a favorite, the Cougars are 2-2 ATS.
And it’s not as if the Buffaloes have been that bad this season. Colorado has won only once in its last seven games, but three of the six losses were within one possession. Colorado has played four road games this season, with three of them being within one possession.
The Cougars have to have a letdown at some point, and this game is the perfect point for the Cougars to let off the gas pedal, especially after a big road win against UCLA and a rivalry game next week against Washington. — Go against the chalk with Colorado
