I stopped the bleeding in week 13 from a late collapse in college football. I ended the regular season on a 3-3 ATS note, giving me a 43-35 ATS mark overall for the season, good enough for a 55 percent win percentage.
That’s not a bad year, and much better than my disaster of an NFL season. With championship week upon us, here’s my favorite week 14 college football picks that will cover the spread.
Overall: 43-35 ATS
Underdogs: 22-17 ATS
Favorites: 21-18 ATS
TCU vs. Oklahoma (-7.5)
This isn’t completely based on the first meeting, which was a blowout. The Sooners overwhelmed the Horned Frogs in that matchup, thanks to one of the best offenses in the nation.
This game will be tighter, but that offense is too good to ignore, making it highly likely this game reaches double-digits in the final margin. The Sooners are averaging an NCAA-best 8.4 yards per play this season, and it’s risen in recent weeks.
TCU’s defense is one of the better units in the Big 12, but it’s still not elite, like the Sooners’ offense. This game stays close for three quarters, but the Sooners eventually outlast the Horned Frogs. — Go Chalk with Oklahoma
Memphis (+7) vs. Central Florida
Central Florida has been playing less-than-perfect in recent weeks. They’re still winning, but they’re not playing with the consistency that propelled them earlier this season to an undefeated season.
The Knights are averaging less yards per play on offense and giving up more yards per play on defense in the last three games, compared to their season average. Memphis, meanwhile, won’t have to worry about getting into a shootout with Central Florida.
The Tigers are actually averaging 9.1 yards per play in the last three games, three yards more per play than Central Florida. The Tigers are legitimate and shouldn’t be a touchdown underdog. — Go Against The Chalk with Memphis
South Alabama at New Mexico State (-10)
The number on this game has moving almost three points since the opening line was released. New Mexico State averages more than a yard more per play than South Alabama, and the Aggies are about a yard better per play on defense, and getting better.
The bettors moving this line toward New Mexico State were on to something. New Mexico State will be highly motivated with having a shot at a bowl game for the first time in more than 50 years. And South Alabama didn’t show up in the last game against a Georgia Southern team that hadn’t won a game all year. The Jaguars are looking for a permanent head coach and now they have to make a trip out west in December to end the season.
This game won’t be close. — Go Chalk with New Mexico State
Miami vs. Clemson (-10)
The Hurricanes were exposed last week against Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes have looked like an elite team only twice this season, and one of those games came against a Virginia Tech team that is not as good as previously perceived.
The Hurricanes’ record is bolstered by an easy schedule and a two-game stretch where they were on national television blowing out teams we believed were really good. But the offense isn’t good enough to move the ball consistently against a defense like Clemson, and the defense relies too much on speed that it can’t engage in a game that will require winning many battles up front.
The Tigers are better prepared for this spotlight and the team is just flat-out better. I don’t anticipate this game will be within two touchdowns. — Go Chalk with Clemson
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (+6)
My confidence in this game isn’t near as high as the others, but I’ll go with the Badgers based on Ohio State’s slow starts. The Buckeyes haven’t been great early in games, but have benefited by relying on the opposition screwing up.
That won’t happen against the Badgers. Wisconsin has a good enough defense that it should be able to slow down the Buckeyes, and the Badgers are a team that gets better as the game progresses.
I’m worried about the quarterback situation for the Badgers, but I still can’t get over that blowout loss at Iowa for the Buckeyes. Wisconsin can expose Ohio State in certain areas, so this should be within a touchdown. — Go Against The Chalk with Wisconsin
