Near misses defined the first installment of my college football picks against the spread.
It was still a good week, going 4-2 ATS, but one of the most attractive picks, UCLA, fell short in overtime, eliminating my bid at a 5-1 number. The key to this week and beyond, though, is to not take too much stock in the results from week 1. Experts love to overreact about week 1, either saying losing teams are destined for down years, and winners will be in the national title game.
Avoid knee-jerk reactions and find those teams that have overinflated or underwhelming odds in week 2. Here’s my college football best bets for week 2.
Last Week: 4-2 ATS
Season: 4-2 ATS
North Carolina at Illinois (+9.5)
I know that I’m supposed to love North Carolina and sell the Big 10. And while I generally sell the Big 10, I can’t forget about what happened last week with the Tar Heels and this week represents another road game.
I hate back-to-back road games. But what I hate even more is a leaky defense going on the road again.
The Tar Heels were shredded last week after grabbing a 10-point lead in the second half. They couldn’t stop the run and didn’t make any stops when necessary.
Illinois isn’t Georgia. But the Fighting Illini aren’t bad enough that they can’t keep this close. Lovie Smith is a defensive coach who should be able to slow down the Tar Heels’ attack. The offense features a veteran quarterback for Illinois who could keep improving.
I’m not saying the Illini will win this game. What I am saying is that it will be closer than the experts believe. — Go Against the Chalk with Illinois
Arkansas at TCU (-7.5)
This is one of those games where bettors shouldn’t take too much stock in what happened last week. TCU was atrocious last week, but still pulled out a victory. Arkansas wasn’t much better, and also squeezed out a win.
Both teams will be better this week, but I have far more faith in the Horned Frogs than the Razorbacks. I’m getting good value with TCU at home and with the far more dynamic offense. Kenny Hill totaled five touchdowns last week and showed that he doesn’t mind running or passing during the majority of the game.
This game will come down to TCU’s ability to stop the run and keep the Razorbacks from utilizing clock. Arkansas wasn’t very good last week running the ball and I don’t anticipate that will improve this week. The same can be said for TCU’s defense, but I expect better things to come in this primetime matchup.
Don’t worry about TCU’s struggles last week. This game stays close for a half before TCU runs aways with a double-digit victory. — Go Chalk with TCU
Wake Forest (+5) at Duke
For the five people who will actually watch this game, don’t expect much offense. Wake Forest won in thrilling fashion, 7-3 against Tulane last week, while Duke started a redshirt freshman in a win against North Carolina Central.
And while the Blue Devils’ victory was by double-digits on Saturday, they had five fumbles against the far inferior NC Central.
Wake isn’t going to score points. It couldn’t do it last year (who can forget last year’s 3-0 victory against Boston College?) and all signs point to the same output this season. What it can do is play defense.
And that spells trouble for the Blue Devils. Wake should be able to compete and was playing well down the stretch last season. I expect that to be on full display Saturday against the Blue Devils. Oddsmakers are showing the same belief, moving this line from 8.5 points in the opening, to five points. Don’t be worried about the reduced number. This game should be within a field goal. — Go Against The Chalk with Wake Forest
Bonus Bets
BYU at Utah (-3.5) — BYU was lucky to escape with a victory against Arizona. That won’t happen this week against a far more talented Utah team. This stays close for awhile, but eventually Utah’s depth and talent win out. — Go Chalk with Utah
Texas Tech (+3) at Arizona State — Big 12 vs. Pac-12 goes in the direction of the Big 12. The Red Raiders don’t play much defense, but the offense will do enough to defeat the Sun Devils.
Virginia at Oregon (-24.5) — Virginia is really bad. That’s not a knee-jerk reaction from last week’s beatdown. Oregon didn’t look good last week either, so they’ll take out some frustration at night over the Cavaliers. This one is over by halftime.
