I took it on the nose again last week in college football. Some years you have it, some you don’t.
This year is not looking so great, but I’ll give it the old college try and keep pushing to find those teams that can cover on a consistent basis.
Here’s the week 4 college football best bets.
Last Week: 1-5 ATS
Season: 6-12 ATS
Florida (+7) at Tennessee
Can we find the real Tennessee? The Volunteers have looked awful in two games, against Ohio and Appalachian State, and then looked good for a couple of quarters against Virginia Tech.
The talent is there for the Volunteers. My biggest concern entering this season was if that talent could mold into a consistent unit. So far that hasn’t happened and Saturday’s game against the Gators represents the biggest test of the season so far.
Florida has done what it has needed to this season. It has overwhelmed its opponents and looked considerably tough on the defensive side of the ball. The Volunteers, on the other hand, have looked very inconsistent on that side of the ball.
Oddsmakers are giving you a touchdown in this game based on a perceived talent advantage for the Volunteers. Florida can come close to matching Tennessee’s personnel and it can win the coaching matchup. — Go Against The Chalk with Florida
Nebraska at Northwestern (+7.5)
Everyone is going to be booking the Cornhuskers. Mark my words. And I’m not. Maybe that’s why I’m six games under .500 against the spread already this season.
But this game screams trap.
Nebraska is coming off the high of defeating Oregon last week at home. The Cornhuskers finally look like a team that can compete in the Big 10 West. But they’ve yet to convince me in the past at being able to win these kinds of games.
And while Northwestern has a terrible record with some terrible losses, I’m still not backing away from the Wildcats as an option this season. Northwestern plays close games. That’s just what it does. And sometimes that means losing to bad teams, which they’ve done this season.
But they’ve shown to still have a quality defense that could cause problems to a distracted Nebraska team on the road Saturday. — Go Against The Chalk with Northwestern
California at Arizona State (-4.5)
Welcome to the wild, wild West. If you can stay up, expect plenty of high-scoring, close games on the West coast.
This game won’t feature any defense, so don’t expect this to be quick by any means. And don’t hop off Arizona State’s bandwagon based on last week’s four-point win against UTSA. It’s tough to go on the road after a major victory at home, which happened in week 2 against Texas Tech.
They sleepwalked through last week’s game and came out as the victor. That’s all they could ask for in a game like that.
With this game, I get a California team coming off an emotional victory last week against a decent Texas team. But the Golden Bears just aren’t as good as what they looked like last week. That was a prime situation for an upset and they did it.
This week is a solid situation for a letdown in a topsy-turvy Pac-12. Arizona State and California can score on anyone. The Sun Devils will be able to score more and will win this game by more than four points. — Go Chalk with Arizona State
Bonus Bets
Duke at Notre Dame (-21) — We should be concerned for Notre Dame after last week, but this is a great game to bounce back. Duke is terrible and I get them on back-to-back road games. The Fighting Irish win big. — Go Chalk with Notre Dame
BYU at West Virginia (-7) — OK, I was all over BYU not being able to keep up with UCLA last week. They lost, but covered. Now they have to continue their death schedule across the country. At some point, the Cougars are going to fall flat on their face. — Go Chalk with West Virginia
Wake Forest at Indiana (-6.5) — Wake Forest can’t score. Indiana can. The Demon Deacons aren’t prepared to compete on the road yet. — Go Chalk with Indiana
