I got back on the map in college football in week 5, going 3-2-1 against the spread and making that slow climb back to respectability.
The key to college football is finding those teams that are overhyped and betting against them. It sounds simple, but unlike the NFL where even bad NFL teams can keep the final score close, bad college football teams will lose by a wide margin.
As the season progresses through October, that’s the main priority for anyone prognosticating on a weekly basis. Let’s see if I’ve pinpointed the right teams to bet against in the week 6 college football best bets.
Last Week: 3-2-1 ATS
Overall: 10-19-1 ATS
Auburn (-3) at Mississippi State
I was all over Auburn in the preseason as being a dark horse pick to win the SEC West. That isn’t going to happen, but it doesn’t mean the Tigers can’t be a tough out on a weekly basis.
A tough early season schedule looks to be working for Auburn. The Tigers dropped two of the season’s first three games against Clemson and Texas A&M. I was a little disappointed in the showing against the Aggies, but the Tigers followed that up with a nice win at home against LSU and then a blowout victory against Louisiana-Monroe.
The offensive line looks like it’s improving for the Tigers and that defense is still good enough to keep teams at bay. What has haunted Auburn in the early going is a lack of red zone efficiency, but that cures itself over time. Auburn can still move the ball, and at least last week, the Tigers were able to find the endzone.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State has been about as inconsistent as possible. It lost the season’s opening game, defeated South Carolina, lost to LSU and then got into a shootout with UMass. I can’t depend on that inconsistency. Auburn is the better team and that will show in a battle featuring two teams desperate for a win. — Go Chalk with Auburn
Iowa at Minnesota (+2)
I’m almost tempted to take the Hawkeyes in this instance because I can’t believe Iowa is favored to win this game.
Something stinks about this betting line, but I’ll go with my gut and back the Golden Gophers.
Have you watched Iowa play recently? The Hawkeyes aren’t efficient on offense and for some reason that defense is head-scratching at times. It’s amazing that a defense with Desmond King taking away half the field couldn’t stop the pass against a below-average Northwestern team.
I’ve been all over the Gophers in the early going, but it appears their West title bid took a major hit in an overtime loss against Penn State last week. I’m not going to worry too much about that outcome. Minnesota moved the ball efficiently and just couldn’t get the job done on the road. That’s not unlike previous Minnesota teams.
In this case, though, I get a team able to move the ball well and with enough defense that it should be able to stop Iowa in most cases. I can’t believe I’m actually getting points in this game, so I’ll take them and run. — Go Against The Chalk with Minnesota
Colorado at USC (-4.5)
Colorado has been the surprise hit of the Pac-12 season. USC has been the surprise disappointment.
The Trojans have been embarrassed twice this season on national television. The defense hasn’t done much, while the offense hasn’t been consistent.
But this is college football and teams do eventually get better. We saw USC take major steps forward in the last two weeks against a good Utah team and Arizona State. The Trojans could have easily beaten Utah and took care of business by three touchdowns last week. The offense is moving the ball better, putting more pressure on the opposition.
The Buffaloes, though, have looked about as good as any team in the Pac-12. The only loss of the season featured a big lead on Michigan. And Colorado recorded a win on the road against Oregon.
But sometimes the matchup doesn’t fit. USC has a big advantage in the talent gap. Colorado has the advantage in the national ranking, but I see this as a one-sided affair in the trenches. The Trojans keep progressing and win by double-digits. — Go Chalk with USC
Bonus Bets
Michigan at Rutgers (+28) — It doesn’t get any easier for Rutgers after losing by almost 60 to Ohio State. But something should be different at home for the Scarlet Knights. The Wolverines easily win, but Rutgers continues to get better after facing a murderer’s row schedule in the early going. — Go Against The Chalk with Rutgers
California at Oregon State (+14) — Oregon State is not very good as evident from last week’s beatdown against Colorado. But California isn’t used to being a road favorite (only twice since 2014). That makes a difference in this one. — Go Against The Chalk with Oregon State
Alabama at Arkansas (+14) — Arkansas plays Alabama tough. This won’t be any different. The Crimson Tide sometimes don’t beat teams like they should. Don’t bet the farm, but don’t be surprised if this is much closer than many think. — Go Against The Chalk with Arkansas
