This has been a long college football season. I need some big weeks and I actually believe this week is set up for nice picking.
I don’t need to go in detail how these teams keep producing bad beats. This is the week I get back on track. Here’s the week 7 college football best bets.
Last Week: 2-4 ATS
Overall: 12-23-1 ATS
Iowa State (+13.5) at Texas
Oddsmakers are making too much of the fact that Iowa State is in the midst of back-to-back road games. The Cyclones are close to putting this together.
Iowa State has competed well in the last two weeks against superior competition. The Cyclones held late leads against Baylor and Oklahoma State, but just haven’t learned how to finish. This week could be the week where things finally come together.
The Longhorns are atrocious on the defensive side of the ball. That plays right into Iowa State’s hands, which doesn’t exactly have a top-tier offense at its disposal. However, the running game has finally started to find its stride, which could be an important facet in Iowa State’s attempt to upset the Longhorns.
Part of this pick also goes back to Texas, which just isn’t making improvements. I have been a huge Charlie Strong supporter in the past, even picking the Longhorns as a sleeper pick for a Big 12 title this season. It’s the third year in his tenure and by that time, we know if the coach is going to work out.
I think he knows and the rest of the Texas fan base knows that his tenure isn’t working. And while some may think that would help give Texas some edge, putting its back against the wall, I think it will have the opposite effect, especially after such an emotional rivalry game last week against Oklahoma.
The Longhorns suffer a hangover from last week and continue their slide. — Go Against the Chalk with Iowa State
Utah at Oregon State (+9.5)
I’ve been an apologist for Oregon State this season and it’s starting to pay dividends.
The Beavers entered last week’s game against California as two-touchdown underdogs and defeated California at home. This is the wild, wild west and the Beavers are good enough to compete with those second-tier Pac-12 teams.
The Utes have been good this season, but they rely so much on their defense that sometimes they can play down to the competition. Last week against Arizona, the Utes trailed at halftime before waking up.
They can’t afford to do that this week against a better-than-advertised Oregon State squad. Forget about the blowout against Colorado two weeks ago. Oregon State kept games close against Boise State and Minnesota, and beat California.
The betting public is on the same page, sending this line toward Oregon State by four points, making this line single digits after opening as almost two touchdowns.
Don’t fade the Beavers based on a perception from the Colorado game. This will be within a touchdown. — Go Against the Chalk with Oregon State
Nebraska (-3.5) at Indiana
This is a popular pick for many to take the Hoosiers. And I understand.
Indiana beat Michigan State and was within striking distance for three quarters against Ohio State last week. So, I get why the betting public moved this line from a six-point advantage for Nebraska to a little more than a field goal.
But in this case, the betting public is misguided.
What you may not be considering is that Indiana also lost at home to Wake Forest, a team that although is 5-1, its season’s best win is likely the Hoosiers. Indiana also does this real well each season. They look like a team that could pull off an upset or two, but they just don’t perform in those games.
And while we’re all loving the Michigan State win, it’s becoming clearer every week that the Spartans’ recent trend of being the class of the Big 10 is over.
I know that many expect Nebraska to falter like it has in the past, but this season is looking like it’s different. The Cornhuskers have been challenged and met each challenge with victories. They beat Oregon at home and also traveled to Northwestern and didn’t trip up like many had expected.
The Cornhuskers are more consistent on offense this season and that shouldn’t stop this week on the road. This will be close for three quarters, but Nebraska should win by more than a field goal. — Go Chalk with Nebraska
Bonus Bets
West Virginia (Even) at Texas Tech — Maybe I’m off base, but I’m a believer in West Virginia. The Mountaineers have faced BYU, Missouri and Kansas State and are still undefeated. The defense is legitimate and the offense can score with Texas Tech. Which defense can make stops in this game? It’s definitely not Texas Tech. — Go for the win with West Virginia
Minnesota at Maryland (-6.5) — Both teams looked awful last week, so I can’t determine a winner by those games. Maryland has by far the more impressive offense and the defense isn’t horrible. Minnesota can’t move the ball, so it won’t keep up on the road. — Go Chalk with Maryland
Northwestern (+4.5) at Michigan State — There’s something wrong with Sparty. And while Northwestern started off slow, it doesn’t mean it is any worse than in the past. Northwestern is one of the best teams in the nation at keeping all games close and this won’t be different. The Wildcats keep the momentum with a victory at Michigan State. — Go Against The Chalk with Northwestern
