There’s a number of reasons why not to completely fade teams against the spread. Teams may give you a tough time, so it could be tempting, but for reasons not to employ that strategy, just look at Stanford.
To open the season, the Cardinal looked awful against Northwestern. The offense couldn’t score and the defense didn’t look like its dominant self.
Stanford didn’t cover the spread that day. Since then, the Cardinal have looked as good as any team in the nation and are now 6-1 against the spread and straight up. Stanford and Notre Dame own the second-best records against the spread at 6-1, and will face each other in the season’s final game.
That could be a pivotal game in regards to the College Football Playoff. As of now, the Cardinal are covering big and small spreads, so if you faded them in the season’s beginning, your wallet is upset with you.
No place like home?
Oddsmakers have had the tendency to overvalue the Crimson Tide at home during the years, but this year has been the biggest difference between Alabama at home and on the road.
The Crimson Tide failed to cover the spread again this past week. This time it was against the Volunteers.
Let’s look at Alabama at home this season. The Crimson Tide have won games by an average of 14.6 points per game at home, but that number doesn’t give bettors any cause for celebration. Alabama is 0-5 against the spread at home and is losing by an average of 7.5 points per game against the spread.
On the road, it’s been a different story. The Crimson Tide are 2-0 and are winning games by an average of 23 points per game, and more amazingly, covering the spread by an average of 21.2 points per game.
Alabama is off this week before once again being at home, this time against LSU.
Don’t sleep on Arkansas
Speaking of fading teams, Arkansas would have been a good candidate after the first four games. The Razorbacks were reeling and were 1-3 straight up and against the spread.
Now, Arkansas has rattled off three consecutive covers and did so last week against one of the worst teams against the spread, in Auburn, which has covered only one game this season.
The Razorbacks were supposed to compete for a SEC title this season, but sleepwalked through the beginning of the season. Now, Arkansas is playing better and will face SEC punching bag Tennessee-Martin this week before facing a tough three-game stretch, which features two road games against LSU and Mississippi.
This is the Arkansas team we expected at the beginning of the season and it showed plenty of heart this past week by outlasting the Tigers.
Teams may stop being favorites
There are a few teams that will likely drop off as favorites. That’s probably welcome news to those fan bases.
Nebraska and Missouri have been atrocious against the spread this season as a favorite. The two teams are a combined 2-8 against the spread as favorites. As underdogs, Nebraska has been much better at 2-0, while the Tigers are slumping in that role, too, going 1-2 against the spread.
However, with the Tigers losing this last week to Vanderbilt and the Cornhuskers losing at home against Northwestern, we anticipate both teams may not see too many minus-numbers associated with their team name in the future.
The Tigers are off this week, while Nebraska will travel to Purdue. The Cornhuskers are 10.5-point favorites. From there, we believe the Cornhuskers will only be slight favorites one more time, at Rutgers.
Great underdogs may become favorites
Washington State and Pittsburgh have been really good in the underdog role this season.
The teams are 7-1 against the spread as underdogs this season, and both teams showed their true colors this past weekend. The Cougars went to Arizona and defeated the Wildcats as more than touchdown underdogs, while the Panthers beat Syracuse, but didn’t cover as the favorite.
As favorites this season, Washington State and Pittsburgh are a combined 2-5 against the spread. It’s worth noting the difference, since both teams will likely see more games as favorites.
