We’ve been on fire in the Pac-12 this season with our weekly betting guides. Out of 10 games bet against the spread, we’re 8-2.
It’s been an inconsistent year thus far for many teams in the conference, with perennial favorites UCLA, USC, Stanford, Arizona and Oregon already with a loss.
The conference has improved during the years and that diversity is on full display now.
This week doesn’t feature much action, with three of the five games featuring double-digit spreads. The biggest game this week is actually one before the season that many didn’t believe would be much of anything other than a mid-level Pac-12 game – California at Utah.
Here are two games we’ll keep an eye on this weekend. Last week’s betting guide for each power-five conference went 6-4, with a 2-0 mark in the Pac-12. Overall for the season, the betting guides have been 8-2 in the Pac-12 and 27-23 overall in the power-five conferences.
California (+7) at Utah
We’ve been impressed so far with both of these teams.
The Utes dismantled Oregon at Autzen Stadium and also defeated a better-than-advertised Michigan team at home. The Golden Bears also have OK wins on their resume, with road wins at Texas and Washington.
So, this has turned into an interesting contest, especially with California’s high-flying offense against the Utes’ punishing defense.
Both teams are riding the tide of the increased love from the public. Usually we’re against the public on what they love, but if both teams qualify, then we have to find something else to differentiate the two teams.
In close games, we like to look at third-down percentages, because against a good defense like Utah, the Golden Bears will be forced into several of those situations.
California ranks 33rd in the nation in third-down conversions on offense, converting 45 percent of third downs.
Utah is toward the bottom of FBS in third-down defense at 95th, allowing a 42 percent conversion rate.
This isn’t unique territory for California either. As a road underdog during head coach Sonny Dykes’ tenure dating back to 2013, the Golden Bears are 6-4 against the spread.
This game should be within one possession, so we’re taking the points. — Go against the chalk with California
Colorado (+15.5) at Arizona State
This week is an opportunity for the Pac-12 to see if there’s a clear divide from the bottom to the top.
With a more than two-touchdown spread in this game, oddsmakers are attempting to make the distinction that the Sun Devils should be near the top, while the Buffaloes should be toward the bottom.
Not so fast.
Look at the massive swing for spreads from a week-to-week with these teams. The Buffaloes were a little more than a touchdown underdog to Oregon last week at home. Granted, the Ducks aren’t exactly the Ducks of the past, but Oregon still should be more regarded than the Sun Devils.
Even worse, Arizona State was two-touchdown underdogs to UCLA last week. The Sun Devils won, while Colorado missed out late on a cover. But that’s too much of a swing in regards to the spread.
We’re still not sold on Arizona State. Sure, it beat the Bruins, but UCLA is well-known for its ability to disappoint, and with a true freshman quarterback, it’s not surprising that UCLA would be up and down. The Buffaloes also have shown some progress this season that we’re not just going to dismiss after staying with Oregon for the majority of the game last week until the end. — Go against the chalk with Colorado
Other Pac-12 games
Odds provided by Oddsshark
Washington at USC (-17)
Oregon State at Arizona (-8.5)
Washington State at Oregon (-17)
