We weren’t far off last week, but we still only managed a 2-3 record against the spread.
That puts us even more in the hole, but there’s some promising matchups for Halloween weekend. Every year on Halloween, something weird happens in college football, so expect the unexpected.
Here’s our five best bets for the weekend in college football.
Last week: 2-3 ATS
Season: 17-22-1 ATS
Clemson at North Carolina State (+10.5)
We know everyone’s excited about the beat down that Clemson put on Miami. Let’s face it, though, the Tigers played the Hurricanes at the right time. Miami wasn’t ready and the turmoil was too much to overcome.
That’s why we’re not overreacting…and we’re a little worried about Clemson playing back-to-back road games. The game also is at a bad time for the Tigers, with a matchup looming against Florida State next week at home.
And while we have disparaged North Carolina State in the past, especially for its ridiculously easy schedule, we feel good about the Wolfpack’s win last week on the road against Wake Forest. The win came off a bye week, which happened at the right time since North Carolina State was mired in a two-game losing streak.
We also like North Carolina State’s ability to run the football and not turn over the ball. Matthew Dayes is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and has 753 yards for the season. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett also has the ability to limit turnovers, throwing 10 touchdowns this season against one interception.
This a perfect trap game for the Tigers and the Wolfpack can slow down the game and frustrate Clemson. — Go against the chalk with North Carolina State
Michigan (-14) at Minnesota
We haven’t been singing the praises for Minnesota this season, and with the resignation of head coach Jerry Kill, we’re completely giving up on the Golden Gophers.
And it’s not as if Minnesota is playing a slouch this week.
This is the first time we’ve seen the Wolverines since the epic loss against Michigan State. Michigan had a timely bye week, which should have given them extra time to get over the loss. We are confident head coach Jim Harbaugh will get his team ready to play and that extra week will likely provide more motivation to take out some frustrations on the Golden Gophers.
The opening line was set at 10 points in favor of the Wolverines. We don’t think the betting public has moved it enough. Without its leader, Minnesota won’t make it far in this game. This will be another blowout in Minnesota, this time at the hands of Michigan. — Go chalk with Michigan
Arizona at Washington (Even)
We’re not sold on Arizona. Something’s missing with that offense, and once again last week, it faltered too often to generate much confidence on our end.
And Washington has played well this season against tough competition. The Huskies defeated USC on the road and played with Boise State, Oregon and California.
We’re giving the edge to Washington’s defense over Arizona’s offense. And the Wildcats haven’t done enough on defense to stop anyone. In the Pac-12, the Wildcats have allowed less than 31 points once.
We’re fading the Wildcats this week and going with a proven defense. — Go with Washington
Nebraska (-10.5) at Purdue
This number seems low. We know we put in all our chips last week with Nebraska, only to see it lose again at home, but Purdue is awful.
Just look at its blowout loss to Minnesota. The Golden Gophers aren’t good and haven’t beaten anybody this season by more than field goal. But on the road against Purdue, Minnesota blew open the game in the second half to defeat the Boilermakers.
Nebraska isn’t a very good team either, but it shouldn’t struggle against Purdue. We know that was a disappointing loss last week to Northwestern, but the stats don’t lie. The Cornhuskers dominated that game for the most part. In the end that wasn’t enough.
Nebraska doesn’t leave that many points on the field this week and cruises past Purdue. — Go chalk with Nebraska
Colorado (+21) at UCLA
Colorado isn’t that bad.
We don’t expect the Buffaloes to win, but we fully anticipate them to stay within three touchdowns.
Only once have we been disappointed with their performance — a 25-point setback at Arizona State. Other than that game, Colorado has been a tough out for teams and has competed well on a weekly basis.
Even last week on the road against Oregon State, we were impressed with Colorado’s ability to win a game on the road. Sure, Oregon State isn’t good. But in the past, Colorado would lose a game like that.
California was ripe for a letdown last week, so we’re not completely impressed with the Bruins’ win against the Golden Bears. The Bruins haven’t impressed in the month of October and we anticipate that will continue.
UCLA will sleepwalk through this one and it will be much closer than what the experts predict. — Go against the chalk with Colorado
