There’s a significant shift at the top of draft boards for fantasy football.
For many, the top three spots are dominated by wide receivers. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones are the consensus top three picks, with DeAndre Hopkins coming in as the eighth overall selection.
Does that make the wide receiver position more valuable than the running back position? Not necessary, especially considering the consensus picks from four to seven are all running backs.
What it does show is that confidence in those three wide receivers is at an all-time high. And it’s hard to blame people.
Brown and Jones are consistently at the top of the fantasy league scoring list and Beckham Jr. has shown solid consistency in his short time in the NFL.
But busts will inevitably happen. Whether it’s injuries like Dez Bryant and Kelvin Benjamin from last year, or decreased production like Randall Cobb, the top receivers aren’t always the calling card of consistency.
Here’s two busts to watch out for when drafting your fantasy roster in 2016.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati
He’s definitely talented. And his production is generally in the top-10.
But he goes through lulls unlike other top-tier wide receivers.
Last season, he put up more than 61 fantasy points in weeks 2, 3 and 8 combined. Those are monster numbers.
However, in weeks 1, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 and 11, he mustered a little more than 44 points combined. Those are not-so-monster numbers.
If you’re going to draft a guy sixth among wide receivers, you expect more consistency on a week-to-week basis.
He had similar issues in 2014, when he would go for monster games, only to come back with almost as many weak efforts.
That’s a disturbing trend for a first-round fantasy player.
The Bengals have enough weapons on offense that they don’t need to target Green all the time. Because of that diversified approach, he may see less looks, which would be problematic for fantasy owners.
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston
I’m a big Hopkins fan. He had 192 targets last season and just happened to be on my roster.
He was pretty much the only weapon for the Texans on offense, which allowed him to see a plethora of looks each Sunday.
But I picked up Hopkins last year at the tail end of the second round. This season, his price is much higher with the fourth-highest ADP among wide receivers, putting him in the middle of the first round.
He’s a safe bet to put up good numbers. I’m just not sure if he can be counted on to put up top-five numbers.
He’s not the only show in town anymore for the Texans. Toward the end of last season, the Texans began spreading the ball around much more, and with the addition of Lamar Miller, that will certainly take away some of Hopkins’ targets.
And last season with that new offensive approach of not only focusing on Hopkins, the No. 1 receiver saw his production fall. He eclipsed 100 yards receiving only twice in his final 10 games.
He still added touchdowns during that time, but we can’t count on those all the time.
I still like Hopkins because he’s the No. 1 target on the Texans. I’m just not sure if he can reach the heights of his price tag.
