Trusting your gut isn’t always the best way to approach a fantasy football draft. Every year, though, we see fantasy football rankings differ from average draft position, with many of those times to the detriment of the fantasy football owner.
That’s especially the case when drafting quarterbacks.
Here’s three quarterbacks who the experts are getting it right, while the public is missing the mark.
Check out where experts and the public disagree on running backs
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 17th overall; Rankings: 32nd overall
The public and experts disagree every year on the value of quarterbacks. Experts skip them until later in the drafts, while the public is too tempted not to take a big name. Rodgers deserves to be the QB1 in this year’s draft. But do everything in your power not to draft him.
You only need one quarterback on your roster and there’s just not enough separation between quarterbacks to justify taking Rodgers in the middle part of the second round. And even though there’s mass agreement that Rodgers deserves the No. 1 pick among quarterbacks, he’s still a bit of a risk.
He’s never been very productive in the passing yards category, so he’s dependent on throwing touchdowns. He’s really good in that category, but even last year, he wasn’t great in the first part of the season. He failed to reach 20 fantasy points in three of the first five games. If you’re reaching that high for a quarterback, you better expect at least 20 points per game to come close to achieving that value.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
ADP: 40th overall; Rankings: 61st overall
I don’t get it. OK, maybe I understand how Ryan played really well last year in a year where the Falcons caught a lot of breaks. But this is the same player that only two years ago threw for 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
The Falcons are going to take a drop this season, and Ryan is a prime candidate for suffering a major setback. He set career highs in touchdowns, completion percentage, yards and QBR, and a career low in interceptions in 2016. This will mark his 10th year in the NFL. He’s either found the fountain of youth or will return to the mean this season.
If you’re taking Ryan in the early fourth round, your lineup is in major trouble.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 65th overall; Rankings: 69th overall
This is more of an indictment on what’s happening to Luck. The public and experts come pretty close to agreeing on Luck, and if he’s around at this level in your fantasy football draft, this is a difficult decision.
Just weeks ago, Luck owned an ADP closer to Ryan than as the sixth-ranked quarterback. And now, with some confusion circulating about his availability, he’s torpedoing down the draft board.
The main issue is the lack of information regarding Luck’s timetable about coming back from injury. It sounds like he won’t be available for week 1, but who knows about beyond? And he hasn’t practiced for months either. On the other hand, though, grabbing Luck that late in a fantasy draft is the steal of a century if he returns back to form. Luck has the capability of being a No. 1 option in fantasy football. There’s only a small amount of people on that list, so Luck could be the best draft pick of 2017.
If he doesn’t play or takes awhile to get ready, he could be a major bust, too.
If your roster is sitting well and you’re confident in other later options, then it may be prudent to pick Luck at this juncture. There’s depth at the quarterback position, so I’m not as concerned about that position as others. However, if you’ve picked a tight end and some other high-risk options earlier in the draft (like players with past injury issues), it’s best to avoid Luck and be more conservative at this level.
But if your team can afford to miss on a player in the fifth round (which is possible), then Luck can fit on your roster.
