It was a short stay at the top of the fantasy football world for wide receivers.
Experts were all over the position heading into 2016, calling this the year of the wide receiver. But 2016 turned out to be the year of the running back resurgence, giving way to wide receivers falling down draft boards in 2017.
Either way, though, the position is still important since you have to fill two to three spots on your roster. A bust in those positions is hard to shake, especially if you don’t find a diamond in the rough in the later rounds.
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints
The Saints are generally an easy target for a decent WR1/solid WR2. Cooks and Michael Thomas competed as the go-to receivers in 2016 for the Saints, and finished in the top-10 among wide receivers in fantasy scoring.
The only problem is that Thomas showed top-tier skills at the end of the season, while Cooks faded. Cooks finished the season with less than 10 fantasy points in five of the final six games.
His targets were down in those contests, opening up opportunities for Thomas. Two wide receivers are tough to trust from the same team, and things are looking up for Thomas, while Cooks is on the wrong trajectory.
The wide receiver to trust from New Orleans is Thomas, not Cooks in 2017. Don’t waste a top-two pick on Cooks in the draft.
Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks
Baldwin’s value is based purely on where you draft him.
He finished with a career-high in almost every statistical receiving category in 2016 (other than touchdowns, more on that later) and was a top-10 fantasy wide receiver.
However, that top-10 was as weak as ever this season, and unless Baldwin catches touchdowns, he’s worthless as a consistent WR1.
That’s why as a WR1, he has the potential to be a bust. But if you can secure him as a WR2/WR3, he could be a solid contributor.
He played in every game this season for the Seahawks and found the endzone in only five games. That was a much different output than 2015, when it seemed like he scored in every game toward the end of the season.
Seattle’s offense is difficult to trust and I have to believe they’ll work hard in the offseason to shore up the running game. That could limit the touches for Baldwin, which would drop his production even more. He’s not a high-output receiver, so if he’s not hauling in touchdown grabs, he’s a consistent five-point performer.
You can’t have that out of your WR1 to compete on a weekly basis.
Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders
Here’s another situation where two receivers from the same team may not put up the same type of numbers as the previous year.
Crabtree has resurrected his career as of late with a big outing in 2016, featuring more than 1,000 yards receiving. Oakland employes a high-flying passing attack, allowing Crabtree and Amari Cooper to co-exist on the same team without much impact to their fantasy numbers.
But how long can that last?
In this scenario, I’m taking the younger player. Cooper should only get better, while Crabtree will likely fade to the background. It may not happen right away, but as we saw this year, Crabtree faded down the stretch, even before quarterback Derek Carr went out with injury.
Crabtree tallied 80 or more yards receiving in only two of his final nine games. That was in stark contrast to how he began the season, reaching at least 80 yards receiving in five of seven games.
