A general rule for picking quarterbacks in fantasy football is to avoid drinking the Kool-Aid when it comes to rookies.
Historically, even the best quarterbacks and most highly touted prospects have fallen on their face in fantasy football in their first year. Andrew Luck threw 23 touchdowns against 18 interceptions in his rookie season. Jameis Winston wasn’t much better with 22 TDS and 15 interceptions, while Cam Newton went for 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in year one.
All three of those quarterbacks were No. 1 picks and weren’t viable fantasy football options.
However, despite those failures, some success in recent years may have you believing in the rookie signal callers. Robert Griffin III started the ascent in 2012 with a rookie campaign that featured 27 total touchdowns, compared to just five interceptions. Then, last year, Carson Wentz had a cup of coffee as a starting fantasy quarterback, while Dak Prescott finished sixth in fantasy scoring in 2016 among quarterbacks.
So it’s natural to believe that at least one of the rookie QBs in the 2017 draft will come close to replicating Prescott’s production. While I don’t believe that can happen, here’s the ceilings for the top 2017 rookie quarterbacks.
Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Can Trubisky be a top-12 fantasy football starter? Not a chance. I’m wondering if he could even crack into the top-12 in one week.
He couldn’t even beat out Marquise Williams at North Carolina, but I’m supposed to believe he’ll be a franchise quarterback for an NFL team. The best possible outcome for the Bears is if Trubisky is a project, and after a few years of grooming, he becomes a playoff-caliber quarterback.
The only problem with that scenario is that teams don’t do that anymore with rookie quarterbacks, especially not ones taken in the top-three. Trubisky will see time in 2017 and will fail miserably. Don’t waste your time with Trubisky in fantasy football in 2017.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
At first, I wanted to hate this pick. Mahomes is another one of those mediocre college quarterbacks in this draft that had his stock artificially inflated only because he was a quarterback who could breathe properly.
Most of a person’s success, though, is based on who drafts him. And Mahomes hit the jackpot for being drafted early. Andy Reid is more than competent in developing quarterbacks and Mahomes will actually have an opportunity to sit. That won’t help fantasy football owners this year, but Mahomes could develop into a starting quarterback in this league, with better fantasy potential than current starter Alex Smith.
Mahomes is a no-draft option this year, but keep him on your radar for the coming years.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
If any of the rookie quarterbacks are going to be the next Dak Prescott, then Watson is your man.
Watson should have a legitimate opportunity to start on day one, and out of all the rookie quarterbacks, he has by far the best supporting cast. DeAndre Hopkins was a fantasy beast two years ago with Brian Hoyer as the starting quarterback. Lamar Miller is one of my favorite off-the-radar fantasy running backs this season, and the defense is good enough, that Watson shouldn’t have to be perfect. He can run the football (much like Griffin III and Prescott in the past) and has playmakers, like Miller, Hopkins and Will Fuller.
The offensive line still needs work, but if Watson is the starter, he has the best opportunity among rookie quarterbacks at making a mark in fantasy football.
DeShone Kizer, Cleveland Browns
Of all the quarterbacks on this list, I’m most confident that Kizer will see the field.
Kizer definitely needs more time, but the Browns are playing for the 2018 draft, so they don’t care who calls the signals for 2017. Kizer has all the tools, so he may surprise you with a decent week every now and then. And he’ll likely be leading the Browns in comeback-mode in pretty much every game that he starts.
The only problem is that he will be extremely inconsistent, and he’s not ready for the NFL. Kizer is coming off a junior season where he finished with less than a 60 percent completion rate. That’s a major red flag and it won’t get any easier in the NFL to complete passes.
Kizer will see some time, and may even turn in a good fantasy performance. Don’t take the bait and steer clear of Kizer.
