There’s no need to draft two tight ends, so getting the “right one” becomes increasingly important for your fantasy football team’s future.
The overwhelming favorite among tight ends is Rob Gronkowski, who will be a beast again as long as he stays healthy. Even with Tom Brady shelved for the first four games, I don’t anticipate Gronk to have much less production.
But if you don’t want to risk a first-round pick on Gronkowski, you can wait a bit before snatching up a tight end. After Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen are listed as 38th and 44th overall in average draft position, according to FantasyPros, the rest of the fantasy starting tight ends can be found from spots 61 to 100, spanning rounds six through 10 in a standard 12-team league.
Picking the right one becomes important in those rounds. Here’s a look at which tight ends I like in three different tiers of ADP.
Jordan Reed vs. Greg Olsen
Tale of the Tape: Reed, 38 ADP overall (2nd among TE); Olsen, 44 ADP overall (3rd among TE).
The Skinny: Both are top targets in their respective offenses, so that helps elevate both players into the top-three. Reed was a beast last year, going for 1,043 yards and nine touchdowns. Olsen wasn’t so bad himself, with more yards (1,104), but less touchdowns (7).
But both have slight problems. Reed is injury prone, missing time during his first two NFL seasons. He now is reported to have thumb issues before the 2016 campaign even starts. Olsen is a consistent threat, always putting up solid numbers. However, his touchdown total leaves a little to be desired, especially with an offense like Carolina’s. And he will have to compete much harder for targets, much like he did toward the end of the season last year as the receiving corps improved.
The Advantage: I believe Reed has the bigger upside, especially with Kirk Cousins needing him to perform at a much higher level than Olsen if the Redskins offense will succeed. Cam Newton loves having Olsen as a target, but he doesn’t necessarily need him, since he can run, jump and throw all over the yard anyway.
Despite those concerns, though, I’m giving Olsen the edge. He’s a consistent pro and is a main focal point of the offense. And while Reed also is a primary target, his injury issues scare me, especially if I have to take him in the late third/early four round. — Take Olsen
Tyler Eifert vs. Delanie Walker
Tale of the Tape: Eifert, 63 overall ADP (5th among TE); Walker, 64 overall ADP (6th among TE).
The Skinny: Walker is a tough one to analyze. This will be his 11th season and only three times has he ever grabbed 30 or more balls. And all three of those seasons have been with Tennessee since 2013. Last season, he had a breakout campaign, helping Marcus Mariota each week, hauling in 94 catches on a career-high 133 targets.
That amount of targets ranked him first among tight ends in that category. Meanwhile, in limited action, Eifert totaled 74 targets last year, good enough for 5.7 per game, ranking him 15th among tight ends in per-game targets. Eifert makes up for his lack of targets for touchdown production, as he managed 13 touchdowns in only 12 games last year.
The Advantage: Scoring only on touchdowns is a monumental red flag. Cincinnati’s offense just doesn’t target Eifert enough for him to be a fifth-round pick for your fantasy team. I have some doubts about Walker’s increasing age, but his production shouldn’t fall off too much. The Titans have shown an interest in getting him the ball and young quarterbacks utilize the tight end position as a security blanket. — Take Walker
Zach Ertz vs. Ladarius Green
Tale of the Tape: Green, 97 overall ADP (9th among TE); Ertz, 98 overall ADP (10th among TE).
The Skinny: If you’re busy picking other positions, Green and Ertz will likely be options later in your draft. Green has languished on San Diego’s offense behind Antonio Gates. He will now fill the role of former Pittsburgh tight end Health Miller.
Ertz is still young but has been the main tight end weapon for the Eagles for the past two seasons. Last year was his best season yet, with 75 receptions and 853 yards. His biggest drawback so far has been lack of touchdowns. He has nine total in three seasons of work.
The Advantage: Green is the wild card. We really don’t know how good he is and if he can fit into the Steelers offense better than Miller did recently. In his prime, Miller was a standout at tight end. In recent years, he disappeared. Is that how Pittsburgh’s offense has developed in recent years or was it more about Miller? Ertz welcomes a new coach who has an affinity for the tight end position. Doug Pederson oversaw a Kansas City offense that continually targeted Travis Kelce. I like Ertz’s chances to keep getting better and putting up decent numbers. He’s not a bad pick at that ADP. — Take Ertz
