Sometimes the “can’t miss” option doesn’t deliver.
That’s the lesson from last year in shortstops. Houston’s Carlos Correa had a decent year for the most part with 20 home runs and 96 RBIs. But he didn’t measure up to the lofty expectations of being a first-round fantasy baseball pick in 2016.
We all jumped on the bandwagon after 2015, and then in 2016, Correa was good, but not great enough to justify that high of a number, finishing seventh in fantasy points among shortstops.
Young players get me nervous, especially when the expectations are so high after such a small sample size. Correa’s second-round average draft position this year is a better spot than last year’s bloated ADP.
When looking at the 2017 fantasy baseball draft, here’s my take on the shortstops.
Can’t Miss
Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
Machado is an option I generally like in fantasy baseball because he’s eligible for shortstop and third base. But his best value is with shortstops.
Last year he finished second among shortstops in fantasy points, and was once again the class of the position in homers with 37.
He’s still a near .300 hitter, even with a few slumps during 2016. That worries me a bit, but he’s still young and the most consistent option in a position filled with young players. I’d like to see him raise his RBI total, since his stolen base total dwindled in 2016. But if he continues to pound out more than 30 home runs, he’s in the conversation each week of being the best shortstop.
Potential Bust
Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee Brewers
I get nervous about one-hit wonders.
Villar exploded on the scene last year, totaling 62 stolen bases in 156 games. He generated more than 90 runs and also displayed a little power with 19 homers.
So naturally, FantasyPros, which aggregates fantasy baseball opinions from several experts, has him slated with the sixth-highest ADP among shortstops, putting him at the 29th overall spot.
I’m not willing to risk a third-round pick on a player who didn’t do much in his first three seasons in Major League Baseball. It’s definitely possible that his new scenery in Milwaukee changed his career, but I’m willing to pass on him this season just to make sure.
Stolen bases are a commodity that most can’t bring to the table, but to expect Villar to have the same success this season, wouldn’t be rooted in reality.
Sleeper
Marcus Semien, Oakland A’s
If you passed up the position early in your fantasy baseball draft, it might be prudent to take a flier on Semien.
He’s an everyday shortstop who is still young and has an ADP of 247th overall, putting him as the 21st-ranked shortstop.
With his fifth year approaching in 2017, he’s shown the ability to keep getting better in important fantasy categories. His home runs improved by 12 from 2015 to 2016, giving him 27 last year, and his RBIs jumped to 75, from 45 the year before.
If he can make some effort on his batting average and get on base more, he should be even more dynamic for fantasy owners, and possibly creep up into that top-12 among shortstops. It will take some work, but he’s been laying the foundation for the last few years.
We’ll see if he can turn the corner this season.
