If you’re going to set your sights on a position early, third base could be the ticket.
Four of the top third basemen have average draft positions in the first round, according to FantasyPros, and there’s a reason why. The four — Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Kris Bryant and Josh Donaldson — are consistent and produce in several fantasy baseball categories.
If you miss on those four, good luck finding anything close to that production. If you have the first two picks, then it’s almost a guarantee to take an outfielder.
After that, it should be open season on third basemen.
Can’t Miss
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
There’s plenty of can’t misses among third basemen. All four of the previously mentioned players would fit nicely on fantasy baseball rosters.
Of those four, though, it’s hard to pass up on Arenado.
Arenado is a machine in home runs and RBIs, going for more than 40 homers and 130 RBIs in back-to-back seasons. He’s gotten better in batting average every year he’s been in Major League Baseball and his runs totaled 116 last year, the most of his career.
I’m expecting big things out of Colorado this season and Arenado is a big reason why. His home games are played at Coors Field, so that’s a built-in advantage, and he’s shown the ability to be a quality player away from home, too.
He does everything necessary to be a top-tier fantasy baseball player. Barring injury, he’s about as can’t miss as they come.
Potential Bust
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
At one time, Longoria would be a solid starting third basemen. However, even after a big of resurgence last season, he can’t be counted on as a consistent option.
Longoria owns the 12th-highest ADP among third basemen, meaning that he is a low-end starter in many fantasy leagues.
Last year, he would have been worth that price tag, as he finished with the eighth-most points among third basemen. This year will be a different story.
Much of that increased production was due to his power numbers. He totaled 36 home runs and 98 RBIs. Other than a three-year spurt from 2009 to 2011, he’s never had more RBIs in his nine-year career. And the 36 homers are the most of his career.
In recent years, he’s been more apt to deliver in the low 20s for home runs, so that’s where I anticipate him to be this season. He doesn’t do anything particularly great anymore, so I’m avoiding him as my starting third basemen, thanks to an expected drop in production.
Sleeper
Maikel Franco, Philadelphia Phillies
When you’re looking for sleepers, sometimes you have to dig deep. Franco is a deep sleeper, but he’s young enough that he might be a pleasant surprise.
Franco played his first full season in MLB last year, totaling 25 home runs, 80 RBIs and 67 runs. His batting average was bad at .255, but his power numbers weren’t horrible for a 23-year-old playing 152 games.
I expect him to improve, so if he can get those RBIs at more than 100 and his homers at more than 30, he will be a top-12 third basemen. Currently, he’s listed with an ADP of 141 overall, 17th among third basemen.
He’s an emerging player with power. He may not give you batting average, but if he can get 30 and 100, then he’s worth a pick in your fantasy baseball draft.
