Pretty much everyone already knows the value of the kicker is overinflated. We know not to take a kicker until the later rounds, but when that decision must be made, who has the best value?
Picking the right kicker likely won’t jump your team from middle of the pack to the top. However, grabbing the wrong kicker could be the difference in winning a few matchups during the year.
Here’s a comparison of two different levels of kickers to be taken in the upcoming fantasy football draft.
Graham Gano vs. Justin Tucker
Tale of the Tape: Gano, 137 ADP overall (3rd among K); Tucker, 138 ADP overall (4th among K).
The Skinny: By the end of the year, Tucker could be in line for making a 100-yard field goal. Go ahead and ask him about it. The Ravens kicker has some high expectations for himself, but after signing a major contract in the offseason, there’s reason to be high on his production level.
Baltimore must see something in Tucker that should temper my worries about his accuracy. Last season was his least efficient season to date in his four years, going for an 82.5 percentage in field goals. Those numbers are a bit misleading though, as he attempted a career-high 10 field goals from 50 or more yards, netting only four kicks. In other distances, he missed only one kick. That’s par for the course, as he’s only missed three kicks from 49 yards or closer in the last three seasons.
Gano has been at this kicking thing for a few more years and had his best season of his career last year, going for an 83.3 percent mark with 30 field goals. His accuracy remains in that mid-80s range and is not near as deadly from 49 and in as Tucker. In the last three seasons, he has missed eight kicks in the 40-49 range.
The Advantage: I’m banking on a big season in Baltimore and Tucker is part of the package. His accuracy is one of the best in the NFL and he’s getting to the prime of his career. He just doesn’t miss from 49 yards and in, and with an ADP of fourth among kickers, he provides far better value than the other top kickers. — Take Tucker
Blair Walsh vs. Mason Crosby
Tale of the Tape: Walsh, 162 ADP overall (7th among K); Crosby, 183 ADP overall (8th among K).
The Skinny: Worrying about your kicker is sometimes reason enough to reach every once in awhile. Crosby has been that inconsistent, panic-inducing kicker for fantasy owners in the past.
Last year, though, he was more consistent, allowing some fantasy owners to forget about seasons like 2012 where he kicked at a 63.6 percent rate, or even his sudden inability to hit a long kick in 2014. If Crosby can hit his field goals like last year, he should have plenty of attempts as all signs point to Green Bay being an explosive offense again this season.
Walsh, on the other hand, is on a far less dynamic offense, but his accuracy from long range is unmatched. He went 10-for-10 in kicks over 50 yards in 2012 and is 23-32 in his career. He was 6-for-8 last season. The only issue is that he’s not as lethal from closer range as other kickers, and he missed four extra points last season to go along with two from the 30-39 range.
The Advantage: I’m not sure if I can trust either one of these kickers. I can’t get that chip shot field goal missed in the playoffs by Walsh out of my head and I’ve seen far less mistakes bring down kickers before. And while Crosby was far more accurate last season, I’m not sure if he can keep that up. He’s aging and his booming leg may not be as powerful as it once was. For argument’s sake, I’m backing Walsh as the younger kicker with the most upside, but it’s not made with much confidence. — Take Walsh
