There’s such a varying opinion on what defenses will actually produce for your fantasy football team, there’s no reason to reach for what you consider to be a good defense.
Denver was an all-time defense in 2015 and outscored second-place finisher Kansas City by one point. So, sure, the Broncos are once again the leader in the clubhouse in terms of ranking and average draft position, according to FantasyPros, but should you really go 92nd overall (eighth round in a 12-team draft) for a defense that will only outscore the 12th-best defense (according to points accumulated in 2015) by an average of 2.75 points per game?
My answer is an absolute no.
That’s a major investment for fantasy football owners. To succeed, your team needs wide receivers and running backs. Let’s say you fill four of those spots in the first four rounds, turn your attention to the quarterback position in the fifth round, and then rattle off your tight end selection and pick up your third wide receiver/running back in the seventh.
By the eighth round, it’s time to decide whether to splurge on the defense or add depth to your running back/wide receiver contingent. Because of massive injury issues and the amount of points to be gained with running backs and wide receivers, I’m creating more depth at those positions far ahead of adding a defense.
Those top defenses, like Seattle, with the second-best ADP among defenses, or Carolina and Arizona, with the third and fourth-best ADPs, are available in the eight and ninth rounds.
The ADPs drop off significantly from there, with Houston owning an ADP of 122 overall and Kansas City at 130. That’s closer to an ADP worth picking, especially since the Texans and Chiefs have been solid in at least two of the last three years on the defensive end for fantasy purposes.
These types of fantasy decisions, like picking kickers and defenses, should come from an established strategy. In my experience, adding depth goes a long way in winning weeks. Last year proved that having just a couple of running backs won’t go far in winning your league. You especially need quality depth at that position, and while you may swing and miss a time or two, having more options allows your team more flexibility in getting a draft pick or two wrong.
While some in your league are going to overextend themselves with the Broncos, Seahawks, Cardinals and Panthers, you’ll be creating a roster with the ability to weather the unpredictability of the NFL season.
So, stay away from those top options, and don’t sweat having a lower ranked defense.
