Value can go a long way in making the best fantasy football team. Some dismiss this notion, but if I can wait on a player I covet and find a player I didn’t believe would be in that round, then that’s creating value for your team.
But what if that player who is dropping is dropping for a reason? Just because everyone else says they’re a first-round talent doesn’t mean they’ll actually produce. It doesn’t have to be a blanket statement to pick up those players in the next round just because some “expert” says so.
Here’s a few players who have conflicting ADPs and rankings, who you may have to make a decision in later draft spots.
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta, RB
Verdict: Pass
Freeman is difficult to judge. He blew past all other running backs last season in fantasy scoring, but everyone is tempering expectations this season. That creates a bit of a discrepancy on average draft position across several platforms.
Freeman’s highest ADP is 11th at ESPN and Fantrax, putting him in the later stages of the first round. However, on FFC and Yahoo, he has an ADP of 19 and 21 respectively, putting him near the end of the second round.
If you’re drafting him as an RB1, then I can’t back that decision. Freeman is one-hit wonder who totaled more than 60 yards rushing twice in the final eight weeks last season.
Even if he slips into that late second round spot, I’m still taking Lamar Miller, Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy with more upside than him. He won’t come close to the same production as last season, so I’m avoiding him like the plague.
Thomas Rawls, Seattle, RB
Verdict: Pick
He’s all over the board thanks to an injury that is worrying many fantasy owners. He likely won’t see much action in the preseason, meaning coaches won’t get to see the new Marshawn Lynch in Seattle’s backfield.
Could the Seahawks become a committee, which is a four-letter word among fantasy running backs? If that’s true, his ADP of 23 at ESPN.com at the end of the second round is far too high.
But let’s say he emerges after a few weeks as the top option in Seattle. He was a solid fantasy option when called upon during Lynch’s injury in the past, and in the late third or fourth round, which he is slated to be picked at multiple fantasy platforms, including Yahoo, he’d be a steal.
The Seahawks still love to run the ball, making Rawls a possible RB1 if he’s the featured man. If you believe he can emerge as top back in the offense, then go ahead and pick him as he’s slipping in your draft.
Eric Decker, New York Jets, WR
Verdict: Pass
Decker and Brandon Marshall had surprising years last season, thanks to the prolific passing of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Can I count on lightning striking twice? No way.
Decker is a good receiver, but defenses won’t let Fitzpatrick throw the ball all over the yard this season. The Jets are a defense-oriented team anyway, meaning they’re likely to try to establish the running game, leaving the second-best receiver on the team with fewer opportunities to catch the ball.
His top ADP is listed at 43, while his bottom number is 68. Sneaking him ahead of three running backs, a wide receiver and another skill position may be a big ask considering his targets are likely to drop this season. I’m banking on less production from the Jets’ offense, meaning Decker is a WR3 at best.
Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis, WR
Verdict: Pick
Some people are obviously not as sold on Moncrief’s ability to produce as I am. One fantasy site has him listed with an ADP of 104, compared to his best number of 58. That’s a bit of a discrepancy.
At 58, that puts him at the end of the fifth round, which might be a little of a reach. I love him as a WR3, but in the fifth round, he’s likely coming onto your team as a WR2, which isn’t the best circumstance, but could be a lot worse.
T.Y. Hilton is the biggest deep threat for the Colts, but Moncrief has cemented himself as a solid option for the pass-heavy Colts. Even if he’s the No. 2 playmaker on the team, it doesn’t mean he won’t produce like a WR2 for your fantasy team. If you can get him in the sixth round of your fantasy draft, then your team will be doing just fine.
