Rookie wide receivers are difficult to trust.
Most of them don’t play the No. 1 role, and the targets just aren’t there on a consistent basis. Michael Thomas was far and away the top rookie wide receiver last season, going for more than 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns.
And while his targets in some games tallied 14, 13, 11 and 10, he had a few too many where he couldn’t get past the six-target mark. From weeks nine to 16, he totaled six or fewer targets in four of those games.
Those numbers should be higher as a top-tier receiver on New Orleans.
Despite the sometimes inconsistent play, Thomas still was a top-10 receiver in fantasy football during a rough year for that position, and should get even more attention this season as a No. 1 fantasy receiver. Can another rookie wide receiver repeat his performance?
Here’s the top receivers drafted in the 2017 NFL draft who could make a run at similar stats.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams is a stud. He’s likely the reason Deshaun Watson was a first-round draft pick.
And I was a little harsh on Williams before the draft on his chances of being fantasy relevant in his first year. But, when judging fantasy talent, it’s part skill, and part landing place. And San Diego is a perfect spot for Williams.
San Diego will throw, and other than Keenan Allen, there’s really not another option for Philip Rivers. Rivers has done his best to make receivers fantasy relevant in the past, so I’m anticipating Williams to make an immediate impact.
He’s ranked as the 50th wide receiver by FantasyPros, which aggregates fantasy experts’ opinions. I’m going to switch course from my earlier sentiment and say that’s too low for a player who should see a healthy dose of targets on a regular basis.
John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals
I’ve been high on Ross in the past and I still have some optimism. Ross is a straight burner, who should see opportunities at big plays.
That creates a bit of a problem in fantasy because I don’t see his targets being as healthy as Williams’. Ross will likely start out as the third wide receiver on a team that has been more dependent on the pass in recent years.
But I see a little boom or bust with how the Bengals could use him, thus limiting his fantasy production. He’ll have some games where he could put up more than 100 yards receiving with a touchdown, but his targets won’t be high enough to justify a high draft pick.
Eventually he could be a WR3 on your roster, but his ranking of 56th on FantasyPros, may be a little too high in the beginning.
Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans
We’ve been waiting for the Titans to have more skill at the wide receiver position, so Davis will jump right into the starting lineup in 2017.
He’s currently slated as the No. 2 receiver, but if he can show his ability, he should settle into that No. 1 slot before the middle part of the season. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is on my must-draft list based on his ranking of 13th among quarterbacks, but I’m not sure if that will translate into major fantasy points for Davis.
Mariota can use his legs to pad his fantasy stats and loves to find Delanie Walker for touchdowns in the red zone. He hasn’t relied on his receivers in the past to score touchdowns. Has that been because of a lack of talent or the way he moves the ball?
That creates too much of an unknown to make Davis the 36th ranked fantasy receiver. That’s too high of a pick for Davis with the unknown of how he’ll deliver in the touchdown department. If he falls, he’s worth it. But if he stays in that ranking, I’d pass.
