Rounds 1, 2 and 3 are in the books, and by now, your fantasy football team should at least have your RB1 and RB2 spots filled. If not, you’re in major trouble, because finding a running back that doesn’t have several question marks attached to his name is all but gone.
The average draft positions are changing some, so we’ll avoid looking at players twice, and move them around accordingly.
According to average draft positions in a standard 12-team league, here’s the 12 players in order that will likely be taken in the fourth round:
37. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati
38. Terrelle Pryor, WR, Washington
39. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City
40. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans
41. Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City
42. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
43. Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami
44. Jordan Reed, TE, Washington
45. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay
46. C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver
47. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City
48. Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland
Best Available
Keenan Allen — This round really shows why you should do some draft planning. Let’s say you go Gronk, Rodgers and either a running back or wide receiver in the first three rounds. This round should show you that your roster will be severely depleted in other areas. Can you imagine having Mixon, Ware or Anderson as your RB1? Or any one of these receivers as your go-to wide receiver? These guys are meant to be secondary options on your team, with possible high-upside potential. And that’s what Allen provides. If — and that’s a major if — he can stay healthy, he can compete as a top-12 wide receiver. He hasn’t played 16 games yet in his four-year career, and he has steadily played less and less as he’s gained more “experience.” During his last half-full season (last year he was injured in the first week), he averaged more than 10 targets per game. That’s high-end production. The offense is generally a high-volume passing attack, so he should get looks. His biggest drawback is that he just can’t stay healthy. Among this group, with the anticipated production he could put up, he’s the best.
Who’s next?
Jordan Reed — At this point in the draft, it’s all situational. If you don’t have a WR1 or RB2, or you drafted a risky player earlier, then Reed may not be the answer. But let’s say you have two solid running backs and a top-tier wide receiver. Then Reed is in play. As far as targets go, it’s tough to find too many tight ends who are better. And that shouldn’t change this year…as long as he can stay on the field. There’s question marks with all these players, but Reed offers tremendous upside. The amount of targets he’s accumulated in this young career, to go along with his production, makes him a candidate who could possibly compete with Rob Gronkowski as an elite tight end.
What about those running backs?
I’m leaning toward skipping each one of them. That makes it imperative that my team will have to fill two of my running back slots before the fourth round hits as long as the ADP sticks to this order. Mixon, Ware and Anderson present far too many question marks to trust them on a weekly basis. Mixon is a rookie in a crowded backfield. That’s a lot of mouths to feed in a Cincinnati offense not known for electricity. Ware should see some volume, but in a backfield not dominated by talent last season, he still split carries more often than not. He’s not a running back who will be trusted inside the 10-yard-line either, so his touchdown total will be down. And while Anderson was a big bust last year, many owners won’t take the same chance on him, especially with a more crowded backfield in Denver. Jamaal Charles joins Devontae Booker as potential running backs who could take away carries from Anderson, who also struggled through injuries last year. All three have major red flags, but if I was forced to take one, I’d side with Ware, based solely on potential volume.
Quarterback yet?
No. Brees isn’t a player I value as much as others in fantasy anyway because of his desire of going for huge fantasy points one week, and then faltering the next. He’s going to have games where he notches four touchdown passes and more than 350 yards. But he’s also going to have games where he’s a detriment to your team, with multiple interceptions and no touchdowns. And you have to factor in his age at some point. Never forget Peyton Manning. The end came quickly for one of the best quarterbacks ever. Brees is 38 and missing one of his best receivers in Brandin Cooks. Be careful using an early draft pick on him.
New team, new value for Pryor
He’s one of the most interesting players this preseason. What kind of value should be attached to Pryor? He broke out last year for Cleveland, so he knows how make the most of a bad situation. In Washington, though, he has to compete for touches because quarterback Kirk Cousins loves to spread around the ball. That could hinder Pryor’s potential at being a consistent WR1. He’s still young in his development and I have to believe he could be in line for more red zone targets this season with a better offense as a big-bodied receiver still learning the position. As a WR1, I’d rather have someone better. But as a WR2, he has the upside that could make that work.
Other wide receivers offer up question marks
Landry, Crabtree, Adams and Hill have some good, and some bad attached to them. Of those four, it’s hard to argue against Landry based purely on targets. He’s going to demand attention from dink and dunker Ryan Tannehill, so he’s going to have volume. That doesn’t necessarily equal major production, since he’s never gone for more than five touchdowns in a single season. He’s going to get you yards, but he’s not getting into the end zone. That will give you a safer, more conservative draft pick who will at least contribute something on a weekly basis. The other three, I’m not so sure about. Crabtree’s biggest weakness is his age. He’ll turn 30 during the season, and while his targets were WR1-esque last year, I don’t see that happening again in 2017.
Amari Cooper is the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver on that roster and should demand more attention from quarterback Derek Carr. Crabtree also has gone MIA at times in his career, so that’s always a possibility. Hill and Adams offer major upside with disastrous basements. I’m not sure Hill can survive as a WR2 with the limited targets he’ll see in Kansas City. He’s a boom or bust option, and I’d rather avoid that this season, especially in the fourth round when there are some other wide receivers who are more consistent. Adams is in a crowded wide receiver corps, where he may not even be among the top-two receivers on the roster. But there’s something about Aaron Rodgers, that he consistently targets him, that makes him appealing.
Adams comes with some major risk, but as far as upside, I value him more than the other three mentioned in his section. Landry is the safest pick, but Adams has the biggest return on investment.
